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Rosja - całkowity rewizjonista? Czego uczy nas wykorzystywanie przez Kreml białoruskiego kryzysu politycznego o naturze konfrontacji Rosji z Zachodem
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The political crisis in Belarus, provoked by public dissatisfaction with the fraudulent presidential election in August 2020, has entailed a number of consequences for the international status of Belarus. On the one hand, there was a rapprochement with Russia and, on the other, Belarus found itself in a state of cold war with the West. The reasons for this state of aff airs should be seen primarily in the attitude of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who perceived the social protests as a serious threat to his illegitimate rule and, at the same time, inspired by the West. The threat of losing power caused him to turn to Russia for help, which was given to him. Russia was guided primarily in this case by its own fears, which concerned: the threat of losing control over a geopolitically important region, the shrinking of the area considered to be a zone of exclusive interests in favour of the West, the prospects of the successful democratisation of Belarus and the transmission of the virus of democracy to the Russian political system. Lukashenka, still unsure of his position and Russia's support, has taken steps to strengthen the Kremlin's loyalty. To this end, he continued to take anti-Western actions, aware that his closest ally in the Kremlin was the siloviks group, which was the most influential group of the Kremlin's elite and at the same time responsible for the Russian confrontation with the West. From Russia's point of view, the Belarus-Russia conflict has become a platform for a whole spectrum of revisionist activities: offensive, defensive and isolationist. At the same time, Belarus and its conflict with the West have become part of information warfare against the West, as a part of which the Kremlin was generating tension in the capitals of European countries and the United States. Russia was interested in keeping this going as long as possible, which was not necessarily in line with Lukashenka's own expectations. Whether he liked it or not, he has become a hostage to the fraternal grip of help from Russia. Even if Lukashenka was overwhelmed with help from Russia, whose hug was suff ocating for Belarus' autonomy, the benefits from playing with Russia in one team were greater than the costs of rejecting the Kremlin's friendship... at least until 24 February 2022. (original abstract)
Kryzys polityczny w Białorusi, wywołany niezadowoleniem społecznym ze sfałszowanych wyborów prezydenckich w sierpniu 2020 r., pociągnął za sobą szereg konsekwencji związanych z międzynarodowym statusem państwa. Z jednej strony nastąpiło zbliżenie z Rosją, a z drugiej Białoruś znalazła się w stanie zimnej wojny z Zachodem. Przyczyn takiego stanu rzeczy należy upatrywać przede wszystkim w postawie Alaksandra Łukaszenki, który protesty społeczne postrzegał jako inspirowane przez Zachód poważne zagrożenie dla swoich nielegalnych rządów. Groźba utraty władzy skłoniła go, by zwrócić się o pomoc do Rosji. Otrzymał ją, a Moskwa kierowała się w tym przypadku przede wszystkim własnymi obawami, które dotyczyły: groźby utraty kontroli nad ważnym geopolitycznie regionem, kurczenia się obszaru uznawanego za strefę wyłącznych interesów na korzyść Zachodu, perspektywy pomyślnej demokratyzacji Białorusi i przeniesienia wirusa demokracji do rosyjskiego systemu politycznego. Wciąż niepewny swojej pozycji i poparcia Rosji Łukaszenka podjął kroki mające wzmocnić lojalność Kremla. W tym celu kontynuował działania antyzachodnie, mając świadomość, że jego najbliższym sojusznikiem na Kremlu jest ugrupowanie siłowików, które było najbardziej wpływową grupą tamtejszej elity i jednocześnie odpowiadało za rosyjską konfrontację z Zachodem. Z punktu widzenia Moskwy konflikt białorusko-rosyjski stał się platformą dla pełnego spektrum działań rewizjonistycznych: ofensywnych, defensywnych oraz izolacjonistycznych. Jednocześnie Białoruś i jej konflikt z Zachodem stały się częścią wojny informacyjnej przeciwko Zachodowi, w ramach której Kreml generował napięcia w stolicach państw europejskich i Stanach Zjednoczonych. Rosja była zainteresowana utrzymaniem tego stanu jak najdłużej, co niekoniecznie było zgodne z oczekiwaniami samego Łukaszenki. Czy mu się to podobało, czy nie, stał się zakładnikiem braterskiego uścisku Rosji. Nawet jeśli był przytłoczony pomocą Moskwy, której uścisk dławił autonomię Białorusi, to korzyści płynące z gry w jednej drużynie z Kremlem były większe niż koszty odrzucenia jego przyjaźni... przynajmniej do 24 lutego 2022 r. (abstrakt oryginalny)
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