A Quarter of a Century of the BoJ's Efforts to Overcome Liquidity Trap

• Autorzy: Pawel Kowalewski , Sayuri Shirai

Warianty tytułu

Ćwierć wieku działań Banku Japonii na rzecz przezwyciężenia pułapki płynności

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Japan was the first country to experience sustained deflationary threat since the late 1990s. It stemmed from a mixture of factors of different natures, out of which domestic structural rigidities and the Great Moderation played the key role. Confronting these pressures were not easy for the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This process was lengthy and associated mistakes in monetary policy decisions proved to be unavoidable, but it led to the transition of the BoJ from an obsolete institution into a bold, innovative central bank, which since 2013 has started to set new trends in the monetary policies worldwide. Inflation, however, remained well below the 2% price stability target for most of the time over the recent decade. Inflation has begun to exceed the target significantly since early 2022. However, the BoJ stresses that the current high inflation is unsustainable due to temporary external factors and that it will fall below 2% in the near future. The ability to keep inflation at around 2% depends on sustainable wage and demand growth, as well as on the policies pursued by Kuroda's successor. (original abstract)

Celem artykułu jest ocena skuteczności działań operacyjnych podejmowanych przez Bank Japonii pod kierownictwem Kurody oraz odpowiedzenie na pytanie, czy zdefiniowane w 2013 r. cele banku centralnego zostały osiągnięte za jego kadencji. Dlatego motywem przewodnim tego artykułu jest szczegółowy opis polityki Banku Japonii realizowanej za kadencji Kurody oraz ocena jej skuteczności w obliczu zmieniających się warunków globalnych. (skrócony abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Central banks; Liquidity trap; Monetary policy; Yield curve; Negative interest rate

PL

Banki centralne; Pułapka płynności; Polityka pieniężna; Krzywa dochodowości; Ujemna stopa procentowa

• Czasopismo: Bank i Kredyt
• Rocznik: 2023
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 335--364

Twórcy

autor

Pawel Kowalewski

• Narodowy Bank Polski

autor

Sayuri Shirai

• Asian Development Bank Institute; Keio University

Bibliografia

• Amamiya M. (2017), History and theories of yield curve control. Keynote speech at the Financial Markets Panel Conference to Commemorate the 40th Meeting, Bank of Japan, https://www.boj.or.jp/en/about/press/koen_2017/data/ko170111a1.pdf.
• Bech M., Malkhozov A. (2016), How have central banks implemented negative policy rates?, BIS Quarterly Review, March.
• Bernanke B. (1999), Japanese monetary policy: a case of self-induced paralysis?, Princeton University, https://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/bernanke_paralysis.pdf.
• Baltensperger E. (2012), Der Schweizer Franken - Eine Erfolgsgeschichte, NZZ Libro, nzz-libro.ch.
• BIS (2019), Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis, CGFS Papers, 63, Bank for International Settlements, https://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs63.htm .
• Bindseil U. (2016), Evaluating monetary policy operational frameworks, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/7036/BindseilPaper_JH2016.pdf.
• Borallo Egea F., del Rio Lopez P. (2021), Monetary policy strategy and inflation in Japan, Documentos Ocasionales, 2116, Banco de Espana.
• Buiter W. (2008), Deflation: How concerned should we be about deflation?, Financial Times, https:/ww.ft.com/content/e9744bce-d820-11dd-bcc0-000077b07658.
• Cúrdia V., Woodford M. (2010), Conventional and unconventional monetary policy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louise Review, 92(4), 229-264, https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/10/07/Curdia.pdf.
• Farmer R.E.A. (2012), Qualitative easing: How it works and why it matters, fa-stabilize - 09-25-2012-3. dvi (stlouisfed.org).
• Farmer R.E.A. (2013), Qualitative easing: a new tool for the stabilisation of financial markets, Quarterly Bulletin, Q4, Bank of England.
• James H. (2023), Seven Crashes. The Economic Crises That Shaped Globalization, Yale University Press.
• Ito T. (2021), An assessment of Abenomics: evolution and achievements, Asian Economic Policy Review, 16, 190-219, DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12353.
• Itoh M., Morita Y., Ohnuki M. (2020), Monetary policy in the 1990s: Bank of Japan's views summarized based on the archives and other materials, Monetary and Economic Studies, 38, 55-168, https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me38-3.pdf.
• Kawai M., Takagi S. (2009), Why was Japan hit so hard by the Global Financial Crisis?, Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper Series, 153, October, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/156008/adbi-wp153.pdf.
• Kuroda H. (2022), Toward achieving the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner accompanied by wage increases. Speech at the Meeting of Councillors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo, https://www.boj.or.jp/en/about/press/koen_2022/ko221226a.htm.
• Kuttner K. (2014), Monetary policy during Japan's Great Recession: from self-induced paralysis to Rooseveltian resolve, https://www.spfusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Paper_Monetary-Policy-during-Japan%E2%80%99s-Great-Recession_Kuttner-20140530.pdf.
• Nakaso H. (2016), Japan's economy and the Bank of Japan: yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Speech at the Economic Conference in Tokyo co-hosted by Keio University and Bocconi University to Commemorate the 150th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relationship between Italy and Japan, Bank of Japan, https://www.boj.or.jp/en/about/press/koen_2016/data/ko160523a1.pdf.
• Orphanides A. (2004), Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 15(1), 101-124, https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/monetary-policy-in-deflation-the-liquidity-trap-in-history-and-practice.htm .
• Sato T. (2009), Global Financial Crisis: Japan's experience and policy response, "Asia Economic Policy Conference", Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/Panel_Sato.pdf.
• Shirai S. (2018), Mission Incomplete. Reflating Japan's Economy, Asian Development Bank Institute, https://www.adb.org/publications/mission-incomplete-reflating-japan-economy.
• Shirai S. (2020), Growing Central Bank Challenges in the World and Japan. Low Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Digital Currency, Asian Development Bank Institute, https://www.adb.org/publications/growing-central-bank-challenges-world-japan-low-inflation-monetary-policy-digital-currency.
• Shirai S. (2023a), Incoming BOJ head Kazuo Ueda's vision for balancing easing and exit, Diamond Online, 15 February, https://diamond.jp/articles/-/317714.
• Shirai S. (2023b), Will the new BOJ chief choose to maintain the status quo?, The Japan Times, 23 March, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2023/03/23/commentary/japan-commentary/ueda-monetary-policy/.
• Smaghi L.B. (2009), Conventional and unconventional monetary policy, keynote lecture at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB), Geneva, 28 April, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2009/html/sp090428.en.html2.
• Sommer M. (2009), Why has Japan been hit so hard by the global recession?, IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/09/05, International Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0905.pdf.
• Vollmer U., Bebenroth (2012), The financial crisis in Japan: cases and policy reactions by the Bank of Japan, European Journal of Comparative Economics, 9(1), 51-77, https://ejce.liuc.it/18242979201201/182429792012090103.pdf.
• Watanabe J. (2023), BOJ may end yield curve control by September: MUFG markets chief, the Nikkei internet edition,12 April, https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/BOJ-may-end-yield-curve-control-by-September-MUFG-markets-chief.
• Westelius N. (2020), Twenty years of unconventional monetary policies: lessons and way forward for the Bank of Japan, IMF Working Paper, WP/20/226, https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2020/226/001.2020.issue-226-en.xml.
• Wakatabe M. (2022), The future of monetary policy: lessons from the history of monetary economics. Keynote speech at the 38th Annual Meeting of the Japan Association of Business Cycle Studies, Bank of Japan, https://www.boj.or.jp/en/about/press/koen_2022/ko221222a.htm .