Dynamics of Social Cleavages under Ongoing War in Ukraine

• Autorzy: Nataliya A. Vinnykova , Ruslan O. Zaporozhchenko
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The war initiated by the Russian Federation against Ukraine in 2022 can be seen as a drastic shock event with unpredictable long-term socio-political consequences at the national, regional and global levels. This study aims to identify the impact of war-related disturbances on the dynamics of social cleavages in Ukraine, in particular the possibility of deepening or diminishing such cleavages or promoting the occurrence of new ones. For decades, the internal partition of Ukraine into East and West has been attributed to national self-identification, linguistic and religious peculiarities and the geopolitical preferences of residents of different regions. Shortly before and after the outbreak of the Russian invasion, fundamental changes in Ukrainian society and domestic politics became evident, some of which can be interpreted as signs of the mitigation of social cleavages. Our findings revealed at least two significant shifts in these 'old', traditional cleavages: one occurred after the Revolution of Dignity and the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, and the second one is emerging now, due to the full-scale war on Ukrainian territory against the Ukrainian people. More broadly, this research aims to assess the resilience of social cleavages in the face of a shock event. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

National identity; Geopolitics; Armed conflicts; Social problems

PL

Tożsamość narodowa; Geopolityka; Konflikty zbrojne; Problemy społeczne

• Czasopismo: Studia Regionalne i Lokalne
• Rocznik: 2023
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 71--91

Twórcy

autor

Nataliya A. Vinnykova

• V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Kharkiv, Ukraine

autor

Ruslan O. Zaporozhchenko

• V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Kharkiv, Ukraine

Bibliografia

• Aragonès, E., and Ponsatí, C., 2022, 'Shocks to issue salience and electoral competition', Economics of Governance, 23, 33-63, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10101-022-00267-0
• Bekeshkina I., 2017, 'Decisive 2014: did it divide or unite Ukraine? Transformations of public attitudes in the conditions of countering Russia's aggression in Donbas: regional dimension', in: O. Haran, (ed.) Transformations of Public attitudes in the Conditions of Countering Russia's Aggression in Donbas: Regional Dimension (pp. 8-39). Kyiv: Stylos.
• Birkland, T., 2017, 'Agenda setting in public policy', in: F. Fischer, G. J. Miller, M. S. Sidney (eds.), Handbook of Public Policy Analysis. Routledge.
• Bordeianu, R., 2020, 'The autocephaly of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine: its impact outside of Ukraine', Canadian Slavonic Papers, 62(3-4), 452-462, https://doi.org/10.1080/00085006.2020.1834717
• Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, 2022, 'Complete ban of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UPC MP) and transfer of its property to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU)', Ongoing petitions, governmental portal. Available at: https://petition.kmu.gov.ua/kmu/Petition/View/4364 (accessed: 15 July 2022).
• Cambridge Dictionary, n.d., Shock. Available at: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/shock?q=Shock (accessed: 23 July 2022).
• Chaisty, P., and Whitefield, S., 2020, 'How challenger parties can win big with frozen cleavages: explaining the landslide victory of the Servant of the People Party in the 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary elections', Party Politics, 28(1), 115-126.
• European Council, 2022, European Council meeting: Conclusions. Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/57442/2022-06-2324-euco-conclusions-en.pdf (accessed: 29 July 2022).
• Fandella, P., Ceccarossi, G., and Attinà, D., 2022, 'Shock events: the impact of news media and communication strategies on listed companies' share price', Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 19(1), 334-349, doi:10.21511/imfi.19(1).2022.26
• Frye, T., 2015, 'What do voters in Ukraine want?: a survey experiment on candidate ethnicity, language, and policy orientation', Problems of Post-Communism, 62(5), 247-257.
• Hayes, G., and Horne, J., 2011, 'Sustainable development, shock and awe? London 2012 and civil society', Sociology, 45(5), 749-764, https://doi.org/ 10.1177/0038038511413424
• Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 2011, Ukraine chooses the European Union, especially the youth [in Ukrainian]. Available at: https://dif.org.ua/en/article/ukraina-obirae-evropeyskiy-soyuz--osoblivo-molod (accessed: 22.07.2022).
• Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 2016, Public opinion on NATO: a new perspective [in Ukrainian]. Available at: https://dif.org.ua/en/article/gromadska-dumka-pro-nato-noviy-poglyad (accessed: 26 July 2022).
• Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 2020a, Results of two years of the law on language: successes and failures [in Ukrainian]. Available at: https://dif.org.ua/article/pidsumki-dvokh-rokiv-diizakonu-pro-movu-uspikhi-ta-nevdachi (accessed: 26 July 2022).
• Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 2020b, The Ukrainian language: experience of the independent Ukraine. Available at: https://dif.org.ua/en/article/the-ukrainian-language-experience-ofthe-independent-ukraine (accessed: 12 July 2022).
• Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, 2021, The day of Ukrainian writing and language-2021: is the use of the state language in the public sphere increasing? Available at: https://dif.org.ua/en/ar ticle/the-day-of-ukrainian-writing-and-language-2021-is-the-use-of-the-state-language-in-the-publicsphere-increasing (accessed: 14 July 2022).
• Institute of Sociology of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2015, The results of national annual monitoring surveys 1992-2015 [in Ukrainian]. Available at: https://i-soc.com.ua/assets/files/monitoring/dodatki2015.pdf (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Kaufmann, M., Lewandowski, J., Choryński, A., and Wiering, M., 2016, 'Shock events and flood risk management: a media analysis of the institutional long-term effects of flood events in the Netherlands and Poland', Ecology and Society, 21(4), 51, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08764-210451
• Kulyk, V., 2011, 'Language identity, linguistic diversity and political cleavages: evidence from Ukraine', Nations and Nationalism, 17(3), 627-648.
• Kulyk, V., 2013, 'Language policy in Ukraine: what people want the state to do', East European Politics and Societies: and Cultures, 27(2), 280-307.
• Kulyk, V., 2016, 'Language and identity in Ukraine after Euromaidan', Thesis Eleven, 136(1), 90-106.
• Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 2020, The attitude of the population of Ukraine to the law on language [in Ukrainian]. Available at: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=960&t=10&page=1 (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 2022, Geopolitical orientations of residents of Ukraine: results of a telephone survey conducted on July 6-20, 2022. Available at: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1125&page=1 (accessed: 1 August 2022).
• Lane, J., and Ersson, S., 1994, Politics and society in Western Europe. London: Sage.
• Lawson, K., Römmele, A., and Karasimeonov, G., 1999, Cleavages, Parties, and Voters: Studies from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. USA. Conn Westport, Praeger Publishers.
• Lipset, S., and Rokkan, S., 1967, Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-national Perspectives. New York: Free Press.
• Lviv Regional Council, 2022, The Lviv Regional Council calls for legislative to ban the activities of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate [in Ukrainian]. Available at: https://lvivoblrada.gov.ua/articles/lvivska-oblasna-rada-zaklikaje-zakonodavcho-zaboroniti-diyalnist-ukrajinskojipravoslavnoji-cerkvi-moskovskogo-patriarhatu (accessed: 19 July 2022).
• Margalit, Y., 2019, 'Political responses to economic shocks', Annual Review of Political Science, 22, 277-295, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-110713
• Matsaberidze, D., 2015, 'Russia vs. EU/US through Georgia and Ukraine', Connections, 14(2), 77-86.
• Mudrov, S., 2019, 'The autocephaly of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church: a new dividing line for Ukraine?', Journal of Contemporary Central and Eastern Europe, 27(2-3), 271-277.
• OECD, 2011, Future Global Shocks: Improving risk governance. OECD reviews of risk management policies. Paris: OECD Publishing.
• Onuch, O., and Hale, H., 2018, 'Capturing ethnicity: the case of Ukraine', Post-Soviet Affairs, 34(2-3), 84-106.
• Osipian, A., and Osipian, A., 2012, 'Regional diversity and divided memories in Ukraine: contested past as electoral resource, 2004-2010', East European Politics and Societies: and Cultures, 26(3), 616-642.
• Podolian, O., and Romanova, V., 2018, 'Ukraine: the dynamics of cross-cutting cleavages during quadruple transition', in: F. Jaitner et al. (eds.), Crises in the Post-Soviet Space: From the dissolution of the Soviet Union to the conflict in Ukraine (pp. 103-120). London: Routledge.
• Rae, D., and Taylor, M., 1970, The Analysis of Political Cleavages. New Haven: Yale University Press.
• Rating, 2012, Several features of Ukrainian patriotism. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/neskolko_chert_ukrainskogo_patriotizma.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2013, At the crossroads or integration puzzles. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/na_perepute_ili_integracionnye_rebusy.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2014a, Assessment of the situation in the east: foreign policy orientations of the population. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/ocenka_situacii_na_vostoke_vneshnepoliticheskie_orientacii_naseleniya.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2014b, Dynamics of patriotic moods. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/dinamika_patrioticheskih_nastroeniy.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2017, Socio-political moods of the population: November 2017. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/obschestvenno-politicheskie_nastroeniya_naseleniya_dekabr_2017.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2020, Defenders' Day of Ukraine. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_defenders_day_102020_press.pdf (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2021a, Generation of independence. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_generation_of_independence_082021.pdf (Accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2021b, Seventh annual Ukrainian municipal survey sociological group rating on behalf of the International Republican Institute's Center for Insights in Survey Research. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/iri_survey_2021_ua.pdf (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2021c, Socio-political views in Ukraine: IRI survey. Available at: https://ratinggroup.uRaa/en/research/ukraine/obschestvennopoliticheskie_nastroeniya_v_ukraine_opros_iri.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2022a, Assessment of the situation in Ukraine. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggroup/reg_files/rg_ua_1200_ua_10032022____press.pdf (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2022b, Foreign policy orientations dynamics. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/dinamika_vneshnepoliticheskih_orientaciy_16-17_fevralya_2022.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2022c, Fourteenth national poll: psychological markers of the war. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/chetyrnadcatyy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_psihologicheskie_markery_voyny_18-19_iyunya_2022.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2022d, Lviv Oblast during the war: views of the residents of the cities and IDPs. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/regions/lvovschina_v_usloviyah_voyny_vzglyady_zhiteley_gorodov_i_pereselencev_13-23_maya_2022.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2022e, National poll: Ukraine at war. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_1_marta_2022.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2022f, The six national poll: the language issue in Ukraine. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/language_issue_in_ukraine_march_19th_2022.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Rating, 2022g, The tenth national survey: ideological markers of the war. Available at: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/desyatyy_obschenacionalnyy_opros_ideologicheskie_markery_voyny_27_aprelya_2022.html (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Razumkov Center, 2016, 'Identity of Ukrainian citizens in the new conditions: state, trends, regional features' [in Ukrainian], National Security and Defence Journal, 3(4), 3-57. Available at: https://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/journal/ukr/NSD161-162_2016_ukr.pdf (accessed: 11 July 2022).
• Razumkov Center, 2020, Specifics of religious and church self-determination of citizens of Ukraine: trends 2000-2020 [in Ukrainian]. Available at: https://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/article/2020_religiya.pdf (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Razumkov Centre, 2007, 'Formation of the common identity of the citizens of Ukraine: prospects and challenges' [in Ukrainian], National Security and Defence Journal, 9(93), 2-31. Available at: https://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/journal/ukr/NSD93_2007_ukr.pdf (accessed: 16 July 2022).
• Razumkov Centre, 2021a, Ukraine 2021-2022: modest results, immense challenges. Public opinion on the results of the year 2021. Available at: https://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/other/2022-PIDSUMKI--PROGNOZI-ENG.pdf (accessed: 08 July 2022).
• Razumkov Centre, 2021b, Ukraine: 30 years on the European path. Available at: https://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/2021-independence-30.pdf (accessed: 02 July 2022).
• Razumkov Center, 2021c, Specifics of religious and church self-determination of citizens of Ukraine: trends 2000-2021 (information materials). Available at: https://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/article/2021_Religiya_eng.pdf (accessed: 02 July 2022).
• Razumkov Centre, 2022, Forecasts for 2022 public opinion on the results of the year 2021. Available at: https://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/other/2022-PIDSUMKI-PROGNOZI-ENG.pdf (accessed: 19 July 2022).
• Reznik, O., 2022, Peculiarities of spatial and territorial identification of the population of Ukraine, [in Ukrainian]. Available at: https://dif.org.ua/article/osoblivosti-prostorovo-teritorialnoi-identifikatsiinaselennya-ukraini (accessed: 12 July 2022).
• Rohlinger, D., 2009, 'Political shocks and social movements', American Behavioral Scientist, 53(1), 3-9.
• Selway, J., 2011, 'Cross-cuttingness, cleavage structures and civil war onset', British Journal of Political Science, 41(1), 111-138.
• Spiritual Front of Ukraine (SFU), 2022a, The police are investigating a fight between priests in Vinnytsia region. Available at: https://df.news/2022/07/29/politsiia-vede-rozsliduvannia-bijky-mizhsviashchennykamy-na-vinnychchyni/ (accessed: 22 July 2022).
• Spiritual Front of Ukraine (SFU), 2022b, The transition to the OCU continues: 16 communities voted to join the canonical church in a week. Available at: https://df.news/2022/07/04/na-kyivshchyni-p-iatparafij-pokynuly-mospatriarkhat-ta-pryiednalys-do-ptsu/ (accessed: 18 July 2022).
• The Central Election Commission of Ukraine, 2019, 'Extraordinary elections of people's deputies of Ukraine on July 21, 2019' [in Ukrainian], Protocol of the Central Election Commission of Ukraine. Available at: https://www.cvk.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/protokol_zbvo_03082019.pdf (accessed: 15 July 2022).
• The Eighth Administrative Court of Appeal, 2022, 'The eighth AAS considered the case regarding the banning of the political party Opposition Platform - for life,' Press release based on the results of the case on the banning of a political party. Available at: https://8aa.court.gov.ua/sud4857/pres-centr/news/1286120/ (accessed: 18 July 2022).
• The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, 2022, 'On the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, March 18, 2022, regarding the suspension of the activities of certain political parties' [in Ukrainian], Decree of the President of Ukraine, 153/2022. Available at: https://www.rnbo.gov.ua/ua/Ukazy/5296.html (accessed: 22 July 2022).
• Tkachuk, A., and Natalenko, N., 2020, Local identity: for territorial communities and not only [in Ukrainian]. Kyiv: Iuston.
• Toal, G., and Tuathail, G., 2018, 'Studying shock events using survey research: Ukraine in 2014', Geopolitics, 23(4), 849-850. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2018.1477912
• Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 2022, Resolutions of the Council of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of May 27, 2022. Available at: https://news.church.ua/2022/05/28/resolutions-council-ukrainian-orthodoxchurch- may-27-2022/?lang=en (accessed: 18 July 2022).
• Ukrinform, 2022a, During the war, 600 communities - Epiphany - transferred to the OCU from the Moscow Patriarchate [in Ukrainian]. Available at: https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/3499129-do-pcu-z-moskovskogo-patriarhatu-za-cas-vijni-perejsli-600-gromad-epifanij.html (accessed: 15 July 2022).
• Ukrinform, 2022b, In Ukraine, 15% of the population became internally displaced [in Ukrainian]. Available at: https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-society/3539398-v-ukraini-vnutrisnimi-pereselencami-stali-15-naselenna.html (accessed: 15 July 2022).
• Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, 1991, 'Law of Ukraine "on freedom of conscience and religious organisations in Ukraine"', The Official Bulletin of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, 25(283). Available at: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/987-12?lang=en

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.7366/1509499519105