Selected Relational Models of Mortality Predictions in Small Regional Areas Populations in Poland

• Autorzy: Agnieszka Orwat-Acedańska
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Mortality forecasts are key to developing strategies for national pension and health care systems. Recent decades have seen rapid development of mathemati- cal methods for modeling and forecasting mortality. Mortality modeling and forecasting focuses mainly on national populations, encompassing a country. Mortality modeling methods for large, single populations are dominated by the seminal Lee-Carter [1992] model and its many extensions, summarized by Booth and Tickle [2011] and Janssen [2018] (...) The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts of mortali- ty rates and life expectancy obtained using selected relational models for all 379 counties of Poland (sub-NUTS-3 regions). We forecast cohort mortality rates by sex and age groups and life expectancy at birth. In the relational models, we use Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), as described and applied in Giannakouris [2010] and Rate Ratios (RR), as applied by the Office for National Statistics [ONS, 2016]. SMR is a measure used to compare the level of mortality in re- gions to the mortality of the country's population.(fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Urban region; Pensions; Annuities; Mortality; Statistics; Modeling of health care

PL

Regiony miejskie; Emerytury; Renty; Umieralność; Statystyka; Modelowanie ochrony zdrowia

• Czasopismo: Scientific Publications / University of Economics in Katowice
• Rocznik: 2023
• Tom: Multidimensional Data Modelling and Risk Analysis
• Strony: 91--105

Twórcy

autor

Agnieszka Orwat-Acedańska

• University of Economics in Katowice, Poland

Bibliografia

• Bergeron-Boucher M., Simonacci V., Oeppen J., Gallo M. (2018), Coherent Modeling and Forecasting of Mortality Patterns for Subpopulations Using Multiway Analysis of Compositions: An Application to Canadian Provinces and Territories, "North American Actuarial Journal", Vol. 22(1), pp. 92-118.
• Booth T., Tickle L. (2008), Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Methods, "Annals of Actuarial Science", Vol. 3(1-2), pp. 3-43.
• Brass W. (1971), On the Scale of Mortality [in:] W. Brass (ed.), Biological Aspects of Demography, Taylor and Francis, London, pp. 69-110.
• Cairns A.J.G., Blake D. (2011), Bayesian Stochastic Mortality Modeling for Two Populations, "ASTIN Bulletin", Vol. 41(1), pp. 29-59.
• Giannakouris K. (2010), Regional Population Projections EUROPOP2008: Most EU Regions Face Older Population Profile in 2030, Eurostat statistics in focus 1/2010,European Commission, Luxembourg, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/productsstatistics-in-focus/-/KS-SF-10-001.
• Gonzaga M.R., Schmertmann C.P. (2018), Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas with Defective Vital Records, "Demography", Vol. 55, No. 4, pp. 1363-1388.
• Holzer J. (1989), Demography, PWE, Warszawa.
• Hyndman R.J., Booth H., Yasmeen F. (2013), Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product Ratio Method with Functional Time Series Models, "Demography", Vol. 50(1), pp. 261-283.
• Hyndman R.J., Ullah M.S. (2007), Robust Forecasting of Mortality and Fertility Rates: A Functional Data Approach, "Computational Statistics and Data Analysis", Vol. 51(10), pp. 4942-4956.
• Janssen F. (2018), Advances in Mortality Forecasting: Introduction, "Genus", Vol. 74(21).
• Lee R.D., Carter L.R. (1992), Modeling and Forecasting US Mortality, "Journal of the American Statistical Association", Vol. 87(419), pp. 659-671.
• Li N., Lee R. (2005), Coherent Mortality Forecasts for a Group of Populations: An Extension of the Lee-Carter Method, "Demography", Vol. 42(3), pp. 575-594.
• ONS (Office for National Statistics) (2016), Methodology Used to Produce the 2014-based Subnational Population Projections for England, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/methodologyusedtoproducethesubnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland (access: 14.05.2023).
• Sloggett A. (2015), Demographic Models: Model Life Tables [in:] Population Analysis for Policy and Programmers, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Paris, http://papp.iussp.org/sessions/papp103_s01/PAPP103_s01_010_010.html.
• Wilson T. (2015), POPACTS: Simplified Multi-regional Projection Software for State, Regional and Local Area Population Projections [in:] T. Wilson, E. Charles-Edwards, M. Bell (eds.), Demography for Planning and Policy: Australian Case Studies, Springer, Cham, pp. 53-69.
• Wilson T. (2014), Simplifying Local Area Population and Household Projections with POPART [in:] N. Hoque, L. Potter (eds.), Emerging Techniques in Applied Demography, Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 25-38.
• Wilson T. (2018), Evaluation of Simple Methods for Regional Mortality Forecasts, "Genus", Vol. 74(14).
• Wilson T., Grossman I., Alexander M., Rees P., Temple J. (2022), Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs, "Population Research and Policy Review", Vol. 41, pp. 865-898.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.22367/uekat.9788378758686