Integration of Ukrainian Grain Markets with Foreign Markets During Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

• Autorzy: Mariusz Hamulczuk , Denys Cherevyk , Oksana Makarchuk , Tetyana Kuts , Lesia Voliak

Warianty tytułu

Integracja ukraińskich rynków zbóż z rynkami zagranicznymi w czasie inwazji Rosji na Ukrainę

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper aims to evaluate the implications of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the strength and nature of the integration of Ukrainian grain markets with world markets. The empirical research is based on the theoretical foundations of spatial market integration and the spatial market equilibrium model. According to them, changes in the integration of Ukrainian and world wheat, corn, and barley markets are evaluated via fluctuations in trade flow volumes, changes in trade costs and price co-movement. To analyze trade implications, monthly trade flow volumes, trade shares, and trade concentration measures during the conflict were compared with expected values assuming no war. To evaluate the implications of the conflict for trade costs, the authors analyzed differences between Ukrainian and world grain prices. Relying on the weekly price series, the price co-movement was assessed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Granger instantaneous causality test. The results show that the strength of the integration of Ukrainian grain markets with world markets has deteriorated due to the conflict. It is confirmed by the decrease in the grain export volumes from Ukraine, the increase in price differences, and the lack of significant price transmission between Ukrainian and global grain markets since the war outbreak in February 2022. Moreover, the nature of the market integration has changed. One can observe a growing role of the European Union countries in the Ukrainian grain export share and changes in the Ukrainian grain export concentration. Such behaviour is in line with the theoretical foundation of the spatial market equilibrium model and theory of international integration. (original abstract)

Celem artykułu jest ocena wpływu konfliktu rosyjsko-ukraińskiego na siłę i charakter integracji ukraińskich rynków zbożowych z rynkami światowymi. Badania empiryczne odwołują się do teoretycznych podstaw przestrzennej integracji rynków i modelu równowagi przestrzennej. Zgodnie z nimi zmiany w integracji ukraińskich i światowych rynków pszenicy, kukurydzy i jęczmienia są oceniane za pomocą przepływów towarowych, kosztów wymiany handlowej i badania współzmienności cen. W celu oceny implikacji handlowych miesięczne przepływy towarowe, udziały w handlu i miary koncentracji handlu podczas konfliktu porównano z wartościami oczekiwanymi zakładającymi brak wojny. Aby ocenić wpływ konfliktu na koszty wymiany handlowej, przeanalizowano różnice między cenami zbóż w Ukrainie i na świecie. Opierając się na tygodniowych szeregach czasowych, współzmienność cen została oceniona za pomocą modelu ARDL i testu natychmiastowej przyczynowości Grangera. Wyniki pokazują, że siła integracji ukraińskich rynków zbożowych z rynkami światowymi osłabła w wyniku konfliktu. Potwierdza to spadek wolumenu eksportu zbóż z Ukrainy, wzrost różnic cenowych oraz brak istotnej transmisji cen między ukraińskimi i światowymi rynkami zbóż od momentu wybuchu wojny. Dodatkowo zmienił się charakter integracji rynków. Obserwujemy rosnącą rolę krajów Unii Europejskiej (UE) w udziale eksportu zbóż z Ukrainy oraz zmiany w koncentracji eksportu. Takie zachowanie jest zgodne z teoretycznymi podstawami modelu równowagi przestrzennej oraz teorią integracji międzynarodowej. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Martial law; Corn; Corn import; Trade exchange

PL

Stan wojenny; Zboża; Import zboża; Wymiana handlowa

• Czasopismo: Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej
• Rocznik: 2023
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 1--25

Twórcy

autor

Mariusz Hamulczuk

• Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, Poland

autor

Denys Cherevyk

• Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie

autor

Oksana Makarchuk

• National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine - NULES of Ukraine

autor

Tetyana Kuts

• National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine - NULES of Ukraine

autor

Lesia Voliak

• National University of Life and Environmental Science of Ukraine

Bibliografia

• Adjemian, M., Petroff, C., & Robe, M.A. (2023). The Political Economy of Export Bans and Commodity Price Volatility: Theory and Evidence from Agricultural Markets. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4117628
• APK-inform. (n.d.). Database on Agricultural Prices. Retrieved April 10, 2023, from https://www.apk-inform.com/ru/prices
• Barrett, C.B., & Li, J.R. (2002). Distinguishing between Equilibrium and Integration in Spatial Price Analysis. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84(2), 292-307. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8276.00298
• Baulch, B. (1997). Transfer Costs, Spatial Arbitrage, and Testing for Food Market Integration. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 79(2), 477-487. https://doi.org/10.2307/1244145
• Ben Hassen, T., & El Bilali, H. (2022). Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Food Security: Towards More Sustainable and Resilient Food Systems? Foods, 11(15), 2301. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11152301
• Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). (n.d.). Data. Retrieved May 7, 2023, from https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain- -initiative/data
• Capitani, D.H.D., & Gaio, L.E. (2023). Volatility Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from the Russia- -Ukraine Conflict. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 11(2), 65-82. https://www.foodandagriculturejournal.com/vol11.no2.pp65.pdf
• Denysiuk, O., & Orlova, K. (2023). Economic Consequences of the War for Business in Ukraine: Analysis, Challenges, and Perspectives. In: S. Semerikov, V. Soloviev, A. Matviychuk, V. Kobets, L. Kibalnyk, H. Danylchukand & A. Kiv (Eds.), Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Monitoring, Modelling & Management of Emergent Economy (pp. 90-101). SCITEPRESS -Science and Technology Publications. https://doi.org/10.5220/0000159100003432
• Donaldson, D. (2015). The Gains from Market Integration. Annual Review of Economics, 7, 619-647. https://doi.org/10.1146/ annurev-economics-080213-041015
• Enders, W. (2010). Applied Econometric Time Series. Willey.
• European Commissin (n.d.). Cereals statistics. Retrieved June 20, 2023, from https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/data-and- -analysis/markets/overviews/market-observatories/crops/cereals-statistics_en
• Fackler, P.L., & Goodwin, B.K. (2001). Spatial Price Analysis. In: B.L. Gardner & G.C. Rausser (Eds.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics: Volume 1B. Part 2: Marketing, Distribution and Consumers (pp. 971-1024). Elsevier.
• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). (2022). The Importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for Global Agricultural Markets and the Risks Associated with the Current Conflict, Information Note. https://www.fao.org/3/cb9236en/cb9236en.pdf
• Glauben, T., Svanidze, M., Götz, L. Prehn, S., Jaghdani, T.J., Durić, I., & Kuhn, L. (2022). The War in Ukraine, Agricultural Trade and Risks to Global Food Security. Intereconomics, 57, 157-163. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1052-7
• Glick, R., & Taylor, A.M. (2010). Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1), 102-127. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.2009.12023
• Gonzalez-Rivera, G., & Helfand, S. (2001). The Extent, Pattern, and Degree of Market Integration: A Multivariate Approach for the Brazilian Rice Market. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83(3), 576-592. https://doi. org/10.1111/0002-9092.00179
• Götz, L., Glauben, T., & Brümmer, B. (2013). Wheat Export Restrictions and Domestic Market Effects in Russia and Ukraine During the Food Crisis. Food Policy, 38, 214-226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.12.001
• Götz, L., Qui, F., Gervais, J.P., & Glauben, T. (2016). Export Restrictions and Smooth Transition Cointegration: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 67(2), 398-419. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477- 9552.12149
• Goychuk, K., & Meyers, W.H. (2014). Black Sea and World Wheat Market Price Integration Analysis. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 62(2), 245-261. https://doi.org/10.1111/cjag.12025
• Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
• Hamulczuk, M. (2020). Spatial Integration of Agricultural Commodity Markets - Methodological Problems. Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej / Problems of Agricultural Economics, 363(2), 32-52. https://doi.org/10.30858/zer/120038
• Hamulczuk, M., Makarchuk, O., & Kuts, T. (2021). Time-Varying Integration of Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Market with the EU Market. AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, 13(3), 35-47. https://doi.org/10.7160/ aol.2021.130304
• Horská, E., Moroz, S., & Palkovič, J. (2023). Determinants of Export Activities in Ukrainian Regions in the Pre-Conflict and the First-Stage Conflict Periods. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 11(1), 181-198. https://doi. org/10.15678/EBER.2023.110110
• Ihle, R., Bar-Nahum, Z., Nivievskyi, O., & Rubin, O.D. (2022). Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Increased the Synchronisation of Global Commodity Prices. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 66(4), 775-796. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12496
• Jagtap, S., Trollman, H., Trollman, F., Garcia-Garcia, G., Parra-López, C., Duong, L., Martindale, W., Munekata, P.E.S., Lorenzo, J.M., Hdaifeh, A., Hassoun, A., Salonitis, K., & Afy-Shararah, M. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Its Implications for the Global Food Supply Chains. Foods, 11(14), Article 2098. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11142098
• Janzen, J., & Zulauf, C. (2023). The Russia-Ukraine War and Changes in Ukraine Corn and Wheat Supply: Impacts on Global Agricultural Markets. Farmdoc Daily, 13, Article 34. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2023/02/the-russia- -ukraine-war-and-changes-in-ukraine-corn-and-wheat-supply-impacts-on-global-agricultural-markets.html
• Just, M., & Echaust, K. (2022). Dynamic Spillover Transmission in Agricultural Commodity Markets: What has Changed After the COVID-19 Threat? Economics Letters, 217, Article 110671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110671
• Knetter, M.M., & Slaughter, M.J. (1999). Measuring Product-Market Integration. NBER Working Paper, 6969. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). https://doi.org/10.3386/w6969
• Lin, F., Li, X., Jia, N., Feng, F., Huang, H., Huang, J., Fan, S., Ciais, P., & Song, X.P. (2023). The Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global Food Security. Global Food Security, 36, Article 100661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100661
• Listorti, G., & Esposti, R. (2012) Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues. Bio-based and Applied Economics, 1(1), 81-96. https://doi.org/10.13128/BAE-10769
• Martyshev, P., Nivievskyi, O., & Bogonos, M. (2023, March 27). Regional War, Global Consequences: Mounting Damages to Ukraine's Agriculture and Growing Challenges for Global Food Security. IFPRI Blog. https://www.ifpri.org/blog/ regional-war-global-consequences-mounting-damages-ukraines-agriculture-and-growing-challenges
• Mottaleb, K.A., Kruseman, G., & Snapp, S. (2022). Potential Impacts of Ukraine-Russia Armed Conflict on Global Wheat Food Security: A Quantitative Exploration. Global Food Security, 35, Article 100659. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. gfs.2022.100659
• Nasir, M.A., Nugroho, A.D., & Lakner, Z. (2022). Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict on Global Food Crops. Foods, 11, Article 2979. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11192979
• Nóia, J.R., Ewert, F., Webber, H., Martre, P., Hertel, T., Ittersum, M.V., & Asseng, S. (2022). Needed Global Wheat Stock and Crop Management in Response to the War in Ukraine. Global Food Security, 35, Article 100662. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100662
• Ostashko, T., Kobuta, I., Olefir, V., & Lienivova, H. (2022). Evaluation of the results and analysis of the impact of the DCFTA with the EU on agricultural trade in Ukraine. Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, 8(4), 86-108. https://doi.org/10.51599/are.2022.08.04.04
• Rapsomanikis, G., Hallam, D., & Conforti, P. (2006) Market Integration and Price Transmission in Selected Food and Cash Crop Markets of Developing Countries: Review and Applications. In: A. Sarris & D. Hallam (Eds.), Agricultural Commodity Market and Trade: New Approaches to Analyzing Market Structure and Instability (pp. 187-217). Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Rose, A., Chen, Zh., & Wei, D. (2023). The Economic Impacts of Russia-Ukraine War Export Disruptions of Grain Commodities. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 45(2), 645-665. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13351
• Samuelson, P. (1952). Spatial Price Equilibrium and Linear Programming. American Economic Review, 42, 283-303.
• Svanidze, M., & Götz, L. (2019). Spatial Market Efficiency of Grain Markets in Russia: Implications of High Trade Costs for Export Potential. Global Food Security, 21, 60-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.07.004
• United Nations Comtrade Database. (n.d.). Data. Retrieved May 7, 2023, from https://comtradeplus.un.org
• World Trade Organization (WTO). (2023). One Year of War in Ukraine: Assessing the Impact on Global Trade and Development. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/oneyukr_e.htm

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.30858/zer/177396