Warianty tytułu
Wzrost gospodarczy napędzany przez płace czy zyski? Przypadek Polski
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
This study aims to investigate whether the Polish economy operates under a wage-led or profit-led economic regime. By analysing how changes in income distribution affect consumption, investment, and net exports, insights are gained into the nature of the economic regime, facilitating evidence-based policy formulation and fostering sustainable economic development in the country. The long-term impact of an increase in the profit share on economic growth is found to be significantly negative, giving rise to the conclusion that the Polish economy was in a wage-led regime from 2001 to 2022. The estimated total marginal effect of an increased profit share on output, including multiplier mechanisms, is -0.22.(original abstract)
Badanie ma na celu ustalenie, czy polska gospodarka działa w ramach reżimu opartego na płacach czy na zyskach. Analizując to, jak zmiany w rozkładzie dochodów wpływają na konsumpcję, inwestycje oraz eksport netto, można wnioskować o naturze reżimu gospodarczego Polski, co ułatwia formułowanie polityk opartych na dowodach, a także wspiera zrównoważony rozwój gospodarczy kraju. Długoterminowy wpływ zwiększenia udziału zysków na wzrost gospodarczy okazuje się istotnie negatywny, dając podstawy do wniosku, że Polska gospodarka w okresie 2001-2022 funkcjonowała w reżimie opartym na płacach. Szacunek całkowitego wpływu krańcowego zwiększenia udziału zysków na produkt, z uwzględnieniem mechanizmów mnożnikowych, wynosi -0,22.(abstrakt oryginalny)
Twórcy
autor
- SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
Bibliografia
- Akcay Ü., Jungmann B. [2022], Political economy of growth regimes in Poland and Turkey, Working Paper No. 190.
- Baccaro L., Hadziabdic S. [2023], Operationalizing growth models, Quality & Quantity, 58: 1325-1360, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-023-01685-w.
- Baccaro L., Pontusson J. [2016], Rethinking comparative political economy: the growth model perspective, Politics & Society, 44 (2): 175-207.
- Bhaduri A., Marglin S. [1990], Unemployment and the real wage: the economic basis for contesting political ideologies, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14 (4): 375-393, http://www.jstor.org/stable/23598376.
- Blecker R. [2002], Distribution, demand and growth in neo-Kaleckian macro-models, in: Setterfield M. (ed.), The economics of demand-led growth: challenging the supply-side vision of the long run: 129-152, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
- Blecker R. A. [2016], Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it, Review of Keynesian Economics, 4 (4): 373-390, https://doi.org/10.4337/roke.2016.04.02, http://www.elgaronline.com/view/journals/roke/4-4/roke.2016.04.02.xml.
- Disoska E. M., Toshevska-Trpcevska K. [2016], Debt or Wage-Led Growth: The European Integration, Journal of Economic Integration, 31: 326-352, https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2016.31.2.326.
- Gollin D. [2002], Getting Income Shares Right, Journal of Political Economy, 110 (2): 458-474, https://doi.org/10.1086/338747, https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/338747.
- Hein E., Meloni W. P., Tridico P. [2021], Welfare models and demand-led growth regimes before and after the financial and economic crisis, Review of International Political Economy, 28: 1196-1223, https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2020.1744178.
- Hein E., Vogel L. [2007], Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32 (3): 479-511, https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bem047, https://academic.oup.com/cje/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/cje/bem047.
- Holko M. [2017], Worker Savings, Foreign Investment and Capital Market Development: An Assessment of the Polish Government's Action Plan from a Post-Keynesian Perspective, Gospodarka Narodowa, 291: 5-30, https://doi.org/10.33119/GN/100727.
- Kalecki M. [1943], Political aspects of full employment, The Political Quarterly, in: Osiatyński J. (ed.), Collected Works of Michał Kalecki: 347-356, vol. 1, Clarendon Press, Oxford (reprint).
- Kalecki M. [1954], Theory of Economic Dynamics: An Essay on Cyclical and Long-Run Changes in Capitalist Economy, Routledge, London-New York (reprint).
- Koronowski A. [2018], Does a Low Share of Wages in GDP Lead to Stagnation? Hypothesis of Insufficient Consumption Demand, Gospodarka Narodowa, 296: 5-34, https://doi.org/10.33119/GN/102221.
- Lupu D., Cărăusu D. N., Ifrim M. [2023], Wage share and economic growth: Evidence from Eastern Europe, Applied Economics Letters, 30 (6): 772-779.
- Natsiopoulos K., Tzeremes N. G. [2022], ARDL bounds test for cointegration: Replicating the Pesaran et al. (2001) results for the UK earnings equation using R, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 37 (5): 1079-1090, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2919.
- Onaran Ö., Galanis G. [2013], Is aggregate demand wage-led or profit-led? A global model, in: Lavoie M., Stockhammer E. (eds.), Wage-led Growth. Advances in Labour Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, London, https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137357939_4.
- Onaran O., Obst T. [2016], Wage-led growth in the EU15 member states: The effects of income distribution on growth, investment, trade balance and inflation, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 40 (6): 1517-1551, https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bew009, https://academic.oup.com/cje/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/cje/bew009.
- Oyvat C., Öztunalı O., Elgin C. [2020], Wage-led versus profit-led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis, Metroeconomica, 71 (3): 458-486, https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12284, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/meca.12284.
- Pesaran M. H., Shin Y., Smith R. J. [2001], Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3): 289-326, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.616.
- Setterfield M. [2002], Introduction: A dissenter's view of the development of growth theory and the importance of demand-led growth, in: Setterfield M. (ed.), The Economics of Demand-Led Growth. Challenging the Supply-side Vision of the Long Run, Edward Elgar, London.
- Shin H. [2019], Labor Market Institutions and Wage-Led Growth: A Panel Cointegration Approach, Seoul Journal of Economics, 32: 225-256.
- Steindl J. [1952], Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism, Monthly Review Press, New York: 1976.
- Stockhammer E. [2017], Wage-led versus profit-led demand: What have we learned? A Kaleckian-Minskyan view, Review of Keynesian Economics, 5 (1): 25-42.
- Stockhammer E., Hein E., Grafl L. [2011], Globalization and the effects of changes in functional income distribution on aggregate demand in Germany, International Review of Applied Economics, 25 (1): 1-23.
- Stockhammer E., Onaran Ö. [2004], Accumulation, distribution and employment: A structural VAR approach to a Kaleckian macro model, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 15 (4): 421-447, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2003.07.002.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171685852