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1998 | nr 2(132) | 3--27
Tytuł artykułu

The heligman-pollard model in the dynamic parameterization and target projections of Dutch mortality

Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Fitting curves to annual age-specific data is popular in demography [for fertility, see: Coale and Trussell, 1974; Hoem et al., 1981; Knudsen et al., 1993; Thompson et.al., 1989; for mortality see an overview by Keyfitz, 1982; updated by Tabeau et al., 1994; for migration: Rogers and Castro, 1981; Rogers, 1988; see also the general purpose multi-exponential function by Rogers and Little, 1994]. This is because most demographic processes show highly regular age patterns which, in addition, do not change much with time. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
3--27
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
autor
  • Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague
  • Warsaw School of Economics, Institute of Econometrics; currently: Agricultural Economic Research Institute, The Hague
Bibliografia
  • Chiang C.L., 1984, The Life Table and its Applications, Robert E. Krieger Publishing Company, Malacabar, Florida.
  • Coale A.J., Trussell J., 1974, Model Fertility Schedules: Vacations in the Age Structure of Childbearing in Human Populations, "Population Index" 40, 185-206.
  • EUROSTAT, 1994, Latest National Population Forecasts within the EEA, Annex I. Key Assumptions, The working party on "Demographic projections", Luxem- burg, Mondorf-les-Bains, 30-31 May 1994.
  • EUROSTAT, 1994, Latest National Population Forecasts within the EEA, Annex II, Reviewed by a Set of Tables, The working party on "Demographic projections", Luxemburg, Mondorf-les-Bains, 30-31 May 1994.
  • Hall R.E., Johnstone J., Lillen D.M., 1990, Micro TSP: Users Manual. Quantitative Micro Software, Irvine, California.
  • Heligman L., Pollard J.H., 1980, The Age Pattern of Mortality, "Journal of the Institute of Actuaries" 107, 49-80.
  • Hoem J.M., Madsen D., Nelsen J.L., Olhsen E.M., Hansen H.O., Rennermalm B., 1981, Experiments in Modelling Recent Denish Fertility Curves, "Demography" 18, 231-244.
  • Johnston J., 1984, Econometric Methods, Third edition, McGraw-Hill.
  • Reyfitz N., 1982, Choice of Function for Mortality Analysis: Effectwe Forecasting Depends on a Minimum Parameter Representation, "Theoretical Population Biology"'21, 329-352.
  • Knudsen C., McNown R., Rogers A., 1993, Forecasting Fertility: An Application of Time Series Methods to Parameterized Model Scheduls, "Social Science Reserch" 22, 1-23.
  • McNown R., Rogers A., 1992, Forecasting Cause-specific Mortality Using Time Methods, "International Journal of Forecasting" 8, 413-432.
  • Olshansky S.J., 1988, On Forecasting Mortality, "The Milbank Quarterly" 66(3), 482-530.
  • Olshansky S.J., Ault A.B., 1986, The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologie Transition: The Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases, "The Milbank Quarterly" 64(3),
  • Pindyck R.S., Rubinfeld D.L., 1990, Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, Third edition, McGraw-Hill.
  • van Poppel F., de Beer J., 1993, Measuring the Effect of Changing Legislation on the Frequency of Divorce: The Netherlands, 1830-1990, "Demography" 30(3), 425-441.
  • van Poppel F., van Ginneken J., 1985, Reversal of Declining Mortality - the Case of the Netherlands in the Period 1950-1980, "Mndbericht Gezondheid" (CBS), no. 11.
  • van Poppel F., Tabeau E., Willekens F., 1994, Male Excess Mortałity in the Netherlands since 1850: A Life Table Approach, Paper presented at the workshop: Life tables in Europę: Data, methods, and models, Louvain-la-Neave, Belgium, 21-23 April, 1994,
  • Rogers A., 1988, Age Patterns of Elderly Migration: An International Comparison, "Demography" 2^,. 355-370.
  • Rogers A., Castro L.J., 1981, Model Migration Schedules, HASA Research Report 81-30, Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Rogers A., Little J.S., 1994, Parameterizing Age Patterns of Demographic Rates with the Multiexponential Model Schedule, "Mathematical Population Studies" 4(3), 175-195.
  • Tabeau E., Tabeau A., van Poppel F., Willekens F., 1994, Mortality by Cohorts: Descriptwe and Forecasting Problems, NIDI Working Paper No. NIDI, The Hague.
  • Tabeau E., Willekens F., van Poppel F., 1994, Modelling Age Profiles of Mortality: Choice of the Dependent Variable and Measuring Goodness of Fit, Paper presented at the workshop: Life tables in Europe: Data, methods, and models, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, 21-23 April, 1994.
  • Thompson P., Bell W., Long J.F., Miller R.B., 1989, Multiuariate Time Series Projections of Parameterized Age-specific Fertility Rates, "Journal of the American Statistical Association" 84(407), 689-699.
  • Wunsch G., Termote M., 1978, Introduction to Demographic Analysis: Principles and Methods, Plenum Press, New York and London.
  • Wachter K., Finch C., 1997, Between Zeus and the Salmon, Biodemography of Longeoity, National Academy Press Washington, D.C.
  • ---
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171689046

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