Zjawisko rewersji do średniej w przypadku dynamiki PKB per capita regionów Unii Europejskiej

• Autorzy: Jacek Welc

Warianty tytułu

Phenomenon of Reversion Towards the Mean in the Case of Regional per capita GDP' Growth in the European Union

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Jednym z modeli próbujących wyjaśnić przyczyny interregionalnego zróżnicowania jest model konwergencji. Jeśli jednak model ten jest słuszny, to cechą charakterystyczną dynamiki wzrostu gospodarczego regionów jest stopniowa rewersja do średniej. Oznacza to, iż regiony wykazujące w danym okresie ponadprzeciętnie wysoką (niską) dynamikę wzrostu w okresach kolejnych wykazują tendencję do spadku (wzrostu) tej dynamiki. W artykule zbadano zjawisko rewersji do średniej w przypadku regionalnej dynamiki PKB per capita regionów Unii Europejskiej w latach 1996-2006. Przeprowadzone badanie wykazało, iż relatywna dynamika regionalnego PKB per capita wykazuje wyraźne tendencje rewersji do średniej. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Individual regions of one country can show significant differences as regards the pace of economic growth. One of the models trying to explain the causes of these interregional differences is the convergence model, according to which the regions characterized by relatively low production factors' prices can temporarily grow much faster than other regions. However, if the convergence model is true than the characteristic feature of regional economic growth is its reversion towards the mean. It means that regions which in a given period show over-average (above-average) economic growth in the following periods express the tendency to show slower (faster) pace of this growth. This paper presents the phenomenon of reversion towards the mean in the case of regional per capita GDP' growth of individual regions of the European Union in the period of 1996-2006. The research found that the relative economic growth within the individual regions shows the tendency of reversion towards the mean. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Euroregiony; Rozwój regionalny; Dynamika gospodarki; Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB)

EN

Euroregions; Regional development; Economy dynamics; Gross domestic product (GDP)

• Czasopismo: Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
• Rocznik: 2010
• Numer: nr 110 Problemy rozwoju regionalnego
• Strony: 226--235

Twórcy

autor

Jacek Welc

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu

Bibliografia

• Crone T.M., What a new set of indexes tells us about state and national business cycles, "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review", First Quarter 2006.
• Cunningham T.J., Structural booms: why the south grows, "Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review", May/June 1995.
• Gerlach-Kristen P., Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in mainland China and Hong Kong, "Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy", January 2005.
• Mitchell W., Carlson E., Explaining disparities in employment growth between metropolitan and regional Australia, "State of Australian Cities: National Conference", December 2003.
• Parker E., Common trends and cycles and the structure of Florida s economy, "Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review", Third Quarter 1997.
• Wakerly E.C., Scott B.G., Nason J.M., Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on? "Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper Series", February 2004.
• Wall H.J., Regional business cycle phases in Japan. "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review", January/February 2007.
• Wall H.J., Zoega G., U.S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment, "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review", January/February 2004.