Teoretyczne przesłanki członkostwa Polski w Europejskiej Unii Walutowej

• Autorzy: Renata Stawarska

Warianty tytułu

Theoretical Premises of Poland's Membership in the European Monetary Union

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Przedmiotem artykułu jest analiza celowości wejścia Polski do unii walutowej (korzyści i koszty) oraz stopień spełnienia przez Polskę kryteriów wynikających z teorii intergacji walutowej, w tym teorii optymalnego obszaru walutowego. Analiza ta wykazała, że Polska może ubiegać się o członkostwo w strefie euro i że przyniesie to korzyści oraz koszty, szczególnie w krótko- i średniookresowej perspektywie. Wielkość tych efektów zależeć będzie od momentu wejścia, którego, zdaniem autorki, nie należy przyspieszać.

EN

The article tries to answer the question about the conditions and rate of including Poland, a country aspiring to membership in the EU, in the European Monetary Union. The analysis includes theoretical premises resulting both from the theory of optimal currency area as well as from other theoretical approaches and tasks related to acquis communautaire (The Maastricht Treaty on the European Union - convergence criteria). The analysis conducted indicates that Poland fulfils majority of the criteria - with the exception of the rate of inflation and the related level of long-term interest rate. In terms of trade and economy Poland "gravitates" to the euro area which makes it possible to anticipate the symmetry of shocks in the future, after joining the Monetary Union. The results of studies carried out by the IMF quoted in the article indicate the growing strength of the connection between monetary and real variables of the euro zone and the corresponding macroeconomic parameters in Poland - such as exports (volume, dynamics), current turnover balance, cost of servicing foreign debt. The fact that the Polish economy is structurally not adjusted indicates that the decision on entering the Monetary Union should be taken only when it is possible to resign from the element of flexibility in the form of exchange rate policy. Earlier, according to the so-called "fundamental" approach, the real appreciation of the exchange rate can occur. This phenomenon may be explained by the process of adjustment of the macroeconomic variables to systemic transformation (growth rate of productivity, differentiated interest rates, bonus for investors). The article underlines that the decision on entering the euro zone should be accompanied by guarantees on the part of the European Central Bank concerning access to the system of credits from the Monetary Union when the exchange rate becomes rigid and full liberalisation of capital flows is introduced. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Integracja monetarna; Integracja gospodarcza Polski z UE; Polityka pieniężna; Unia Gospodarcza i Walutowa (UGW); Stowarzyszenie Polski z WE; Kryteria integracji z UE

EN

Monetary integration; Poland's economic integration with the EU; Monetary policy; Economic and Monetary Union (EMU); Poland's Association with the EC; EU enlargement criteria

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu
• Rocznik: 2001
• Numer: nr 8
• Strony: 134--154

Twórcy

autor

Renata Stawarska