Analysts' recommendations and their impact on prices

• Autorzy: Wojciech Gamrot
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This study is aimed at examining the nature and strength of dependencies between recommendations published by stock analysts and the behavior of stock prices. Indirectly, its objective is also the verification of their usefulness as a basis of investment strategies, which is the subject of various, often contrary opinions, The study is motivated by the paper of P. Mielcarz, B. Podgórski and P. Weremczuk who investigated short-term impact of recommendation on share prices (up to 15 days). Another analysis of over 100 recommendations is also presented by A. Boczkowski. This study focuses on medium-term effects (up to 200 sessions). Such an approach may be justified by the fact that recommendations are first presented to a narrow group of people (brokerage clients, insiders or so) and announced publicly later. Hence the recommendation is accessible to wide public with some delay, which is often difficult to measure or interpret. On the other hand, for the majority of recommendations the time horizon is declared as "medium-term" which usually means somewhere between one to six months, depending on the issuer. Hence, it seems reasonable to investigate the relations between recommendations and stock prices in such a period. We concentrate attention on a significant element of recommendation, namely on the analyst's evaluation of the stock value (its target price). The share of recommendations containing such evaluations seems to be growing each year. The evaluations are based on various, not necessarily disclosed criteria.(fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Stock exchange analysis; Shares prices; Recommendation

PL

Analiza giełdowa; Ceny akcji; Rekomendacje

• Czasopismo: Prace Naukowe / Akademia Ekonomiczna w Katowicach
• Rocznik: 2009
• Tom: Metody matematyczne, ekonometryczne i komputerowe w finansach i ubezpieczeniach 2008
• Strony: 343--351

Twórcy

autor

Wojciech Gamrot

• Akademia Ekonomiczna im. Karola Adamieckiego w Katowicach

Bibliografia

• Boczkowski A., Sprawdziliśmy 130 rekomendacji, "Puls biznesu", http://www.pb.pl (04.11.2008)
• Mielcarz P., Podgórski B., Weremczuk P., Czy można zarobić na rekomendacjach kupna, Referat wygłoszony na konferencji Strategie Wzrostu Wartości Przedsiębiorstwa 2007
• Szymański A., Rekomendacje Citigroup nie mają wpływu na kursy trzech banków, "Puls biznesu", http://www.pb.pl (15.06.2007
• Zalewski G., 10 zasad o których nie powie ci twój makler, "Forbes" 2006, nr 11/06