Progowe kursy złotego przedsiębiorstw - wybrane problemy

• Autorzy: Katarzyna B. Budnik

Warianty tytułu

Break-even exchange rate of non-financial enterprises - selected issues

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Wyróżnia się dwa rodzaje kursów progowych - kursy progowe eksportu oraz kursy progowe zbytu. Kursy progowe eksportu określają najmocniejszy poziom kursu bieżącego złotego, przy którym eksport przedsiębiorstw jest opłacalny. Kursy progowe zbytu odpowiadają najsłabszemu poziomowi kursu złotego, przy którym przedsiębiorstwa mogą odczuwać problemy ze zbytem swoich wyrobów na rynku krajowym w związku ze spadkiem konkurencyjności cenowej ich produktów w stosunku do towarów importowanych. Celem artykułu jest usystematyzowanie i opisanie faktów związanych z kursami progowymi, a także określenie istotności kursów granicznych wśród alternatywnych danych gospodarczych. Zaproponowano wyjaśnienie zmienności kursów progowych w czasie, wysokiej korelacji przeciętnych kursów granicznych i kursu bieżącego złotego oraz trwałego charakteru zróżnicowania kursów progowych w przekroju firm.

EN

Information about the break-even exchange rate of the zloty is collected from cyclical enterprise surveys. Break-even exchange rates determine the levels of the zloty exchange rates against the euro and US dollar which would either stimulate or cool down the economic activity of Polish enterprises. The paper addresses issues related to economic interpretation, volatility and importance of the break-even exchange rates for the diagnosis of the competitive position of Polish enterprises in domestic and overseas markets. The primary goal of this paper was to find a precise definition of break-even exchange rates. It was assumed that the break-even exchange rate corresponds to the lowest level of the nominal exchange rate of the zloty at which an enterprise does not lose on exports or on sales on domestic market. On the basis of the proposed definition the author tried - using a panel model - to explain why break-even exchange rates are concurrent with the current exchange rate. The presented interpretation and the empirical analysis allow us to describe average break-even exchange rates as indicators aggregating information on such factors as relative price change, changes in the productivity level or adjustment costs of enterprises, i.e. on factors which affect profit sensitivity of enterprises to exchange rate changes. In the case of individual enterprises, break-even exchange rates are determined by structural factors, which are relatively stable over time. This is indicated by both observed proneness of enterprises to declare continuously high or continuously low break-even exchange rates and close relation between the level of break-even rates related to the activity of individual companies on domestic markets and the level of such rates related to the activity on overseas markets. The hypothesis that lasting diversity of the break-even exchange rates among enterprises may have a significant impact on the formation of average break-even rates over time has not been confirmed. The fact that the less effective companies leave the market during the zloty appreciation periods or enter the market during depreciation periods does not influence changes in the average break-even rates.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Kurs złotego; Eksport; Kondycja przedsiębiorstwa

EN

Polish Zloty exchange rate; Export; Enterprises condition

• Czasopismo: Bank i Kredyt
• Rocznik: 2006
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 3--44

Twórcy

autor

Katarzyna B. Budnik

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