Four Years after Expansion : Are Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland Closer to Core or Periphery of EMU?

• Autorzy: Marcin Łupiński
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In this paper we try to check readiness of three Central and Eastern Europe countries, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, lo introduce European single currency, euro. As a background in the macroeconomic field we use Optimal Currency Area Theory and in the mathematical field three procedures and models: Stock and Watson unobserved component model, spectral and cross--spectral analysis and cluster analysis. Achieved results allow us to state that four years after EU expansion three new countries are rather similar to EMU periphery countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece than to EMU core economies like Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany France and Netherlands. (original abstract)

Scharakteryzowano teorię optymalnych obszarów walutowych, z uwzględnieniem jej kryteriów. Zanalizowano gotowość trzech europejskich krajów, Polski, Czech i Węgier, do przystąpienia do strefy euro i wprowadzenia waluty euro. Do analizy wykorzystano statystyczne i ekonometryczne metody, w tym analizę skupień, analizę spektralną (widmową) i model ARIMA. Osiągnięte wyniki pozwalają stwierdzić, że cztery lata po rozszerzeniu UE o charakteryzowane trzy nowe kraje są one dość podobne do krajów będących członkami Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej (UGW).

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU); European monetary integration; Eurozone; Euro; Cluster analysis; Spectral analysis; Time-series

PL

Unia Gospodarcza i Walutowa (UGW); Integracja monetarna Europy; Strefa euro; Euro; Analiza skupień; Analiza widmowa; Szeregi czasowe

• Czasopismo: Ekonomia / Uniwersytet Warszawski
• Rocznik: 2009
• Numer: nr 22
• Strony: 75--103

Twórcy

autor

Marcin Łupiński

• Warsaw University, Poland; National Bank of Poland

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