Funkcjonowanie autonomicznych stabilizatorów koniunktury na przykładzie Republiki Federalnej Niemiec w latach 1980-1998

• Autorzy: Adam Krajewski

Warianty tytułu

Functioning of Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers in Germany in 1980-1998

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W artykule podjęto próbę zaprezentowania mechanizmu funkcjonowania autonomicznych stabilizatorów koniunktury gospodarczej od strony teoretycznej oraz praktycznej w oparciu o wysoko rozwiniętą gospodarkę Republiki Federalnej Niemiec. Stosunkowo długi okres analizy umożliwił uwzględnienie różnych warunków, w których gospodarce niemieckiej przyszło funkcjonować.

EN

The article assesses to what extent various components of government budgets affected by the macroeconomic situation operate (through influencing domestic demand) to smooth the business cycle in Germany. The aim of the research is to evaluate government budget sensitivity to economic fluctuations and thereby assess the importance of automatic fiscal stabilisers. Fiscal policies and the analysis of fiscal stabilisers have been added to the agenda due to the fact that the EMU member countries no longer have national monetary policies at their disposal and therefore fiscal policy has to play a more important role in smoothing shocks, especially if they originate on the demand side. However, in order to avoid the typical pitfalls of fiscal finetuning, the main focus has increasingly been put on the work of automatic stabilisers. This view is codified in the Stability and Growth Pact, whose "fiscal philosophy" implies that countries should set a structural target of close to balance or surplus and simply let automatic stabilisers work, where appropriate, over the whole business cycle without breaching the 3 procent reference value for the deficit. To determine the size of budgetary cyclical components, i.e. the size of automatic fiscal stabilisers and the structural balance, the standard two-step procedure (also followed by the OECD, the IMF and the European Commission) was used. The first stage of this method is to measure the GDP gap, which is needed for both, estimating budget sensitivity and extracting a budget cyclical component. In line with the method of the European Commission, the estimate of the GDP gap is based upon a statistical smoothing technique (the Hodrick-Prescott filter). The Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-filter) has been selected on the basis of pragmatic criteria such as simplicity and transparency. The second stage is to identify the cyclical sensitivity of all budget components (on the revenue and expenditure side) - their sensitivity to

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Sytuacja gospodarcza; Koniunktura gospodarcza; Cykl koniunkturalny; Dochody budżetowe; Luka popytowa; Finanse państwa

EN

Economic situation; Business trends; Business cycles; Budget revenue; Demand gap; State finance

• Czasopismo: Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny
• Rocznik: 2005
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 187--212

Twórcy

autor

Adam Krajewski

Bibliografia

• R. Barczyk, Z. Kowalczyk, Polityka stabilizacji koniunktury gospodarczej, Wydawnictwo AE w Poznaniu, Poznań 1994, s. 37.
• O. Blanchard, Commentary on Cohen and Follette, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "Economic Policy Review", New York 2000, s. 72.
• C. Bouthevillain, P. Cour-Thimann, G. Van den Dool, P. Hernandez de Cos, G. Lange-nus, M. Mohr, S. Momigliano, M. Tujula, Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: An Alternative Approach, ECB Working Paper Nr. 77, Frankfurt am Main 2001, s. 54.
• T. Cogley, J. M. Nason, Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter on Trend and Difference Stationary Time Series: Implications for Business Cycles Research, "Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control" 1995, nr 19, s. 253- 278.
• C. Giorno, P. Richardson, D. Roseveare, P. van den Noord, Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances, "OECD Economic Studies" 1995, II, nr 24.
• J. Kropiwnicki, Teoria automatycznych stabilizatorów koniunktury, PWN, Warszawa 1976, s. 232-253.
• M. Mohr, Ein disaggregierter Ansatz zur Berechnung konjunkturbereinigter Budgetsalden für Deutschland; Methoden und Ergebnisse, Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungzentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank, "Diskussionspapier" 2001, nr 13, Frankfurt/Main, s. 34.
• J. Pätzold, Stabilisierungspolitik, Haupt Verlag, Stuttgart 1998, s. 175.
• T. Pedersen, Spectral Analysis, Business Cycles, and Filtering of Economic Time Series, a Survey, Institute of Economics, Univeristy of Copenhagen, Copenhagen 1999, s. 70-91.
• W. Przybylska-Kapuścińska, Automatyczne i dyskrecjonalne stabilizatory koniunktury gospodarczej w systemie fiskalnym, w: Interwencjonizm państwowy, Zagadnienia wybrane, red. Z. Kowalczyk, Wydawnictwo AE w Poznaniu, Poznań 1984, s. 111.
• A. Musgrave i m. Miller, Built-In Flexibility, "American Economic Review" 1949, nr 39, s. 122-128.
• P. van den Noord, The Size and the Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in 1990s and beyond, OECD Working Papers, Paris 2000, s. 5-10.
• W. Röger, H. Ongena, The European Commission Services' Cyclical Adjustment Method, W: Indicators of Structural Budget Balances, Banca d'Italia, Research Department, Rome 1999, s. 21.
• G. Tichy, Konjunkturpolitik, Quantitative Stabilisierungspolitik bei Unsicherheit, Springer Verlag, Berlin 1999, s. 88.