Polityka pieniężna w warunkach niskich stóp procentowych

• Autorzy: Michał Jurek

Warianty tytułu

Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rates' Environment

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Autor wskazał na rosnące w ostatnich latach ryzyko wystąpienia zerowej granicy nominalnej stopy procentowej i wynikające z niego ograniczenia skuteczności prowadzonej polityki pieniężnej. Przedstawił także propozycję przezwyciężenia efektu zerowej granicy.

EN

Article presents the meaning of the zero bound on the nominal interest rate and its negative influence on effectiveness of monetary policy. When average levels of interest rates and inflation are already low, the zero lower bound may become a binding for monetary policy. This means that the central bank's ability to reduce interest rates sufficiently in response to large and persistent negative shocks to ensure the timely return of inflation to its target is likely to be constrained, so monetary policy can't fully offset economic downturns. This phenomenon is called the zero bound effect. Although probability of encountering the zero bound is rather small, its negative effects can be very serious. The best way for central banks to avoid problems related to the zero bound effect is building central bank's credibility by stabilising the inflation rate around the target and by responding symmetrically and with equal strength to inflationary and deflationary shocks. Central banks should also implement and protect a coherent monastery order to shape the public's expectations and to ensure consistency in formulation and implementation of monetary policy. However, if the zero bound effect really occurs, a monetary policy doesn't loose all effectiveness. Several recommendations for overcoming problems related with this effect were made. This paper presents briefly advantages and disadvantages of all proposals for overcoming the zero bound effect presented in the literature. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Banki centralne; Stopa procentowa; Operacje otwartego rynku; Polityka pieniężna

EN

Central banks; Interest rate; Open market operations; Monetary policy

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu
• Rocznik: 2005
• Numer: nr 56
• Strony: 35--55

Twórcy

autor

Michał Jurek

Bibliografia

• Amirault, D., O'Reilly, B. (2001), The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: How Important Is It? Bank of Canada Working Papers, nr 6.
• Bank of Japan (2004), Reports and Statistics (mimeo).
• Black, R., Coletti, D., Monnier, S. (1997), On the Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, Proceedings of the Conference: Price Stability, Inflation Targets and Monetary Policy, Bank of Canada, Ottawa.
• Bryant, R.C. (1999), Economic Policy When the Short-Term Nominal Interest Rate is Stuck at the Lower Bound Zero, Brookings Discussion Papers in International Economics, nr 151.
• Buiter, W.H., Panigirtzoglou, N.H. (2002), Overcoming the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates with Negative Interest on Currency. Gessel's Solution (mimeo).
• Clouse, J., Dale, H., Orphanides, A., Small, D., Tinsley, P. (2000), Monetary Policy when the Nominal Interest Rate is Zero, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Finance and Economic Discussion Series, nr 51.
• Coenen, G., Wieland, V. (2003), The Zero-Interest-Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan, ECB Working Papers, nr 218.
• Fukao, M. (2003), Financial Strains and the Zero Lower Bound: the Japanese Experience, Bank for International Settlements Working Papers, nr 141.
• Goodfriend, M. (2002), Interest on Reserves and Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, May.
• Goodfriend, M. (2001), Financial Stability, Deflation and Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Working Papers, nr l.
• Goodfriend, M. (2000), Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rates Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Working Papers, nr 3.
• Hunt, B., Laxton, D. (2001), The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIP) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan, IMF Working Papers, nr 186.
• IMF (2002), Recessions and Recoveries, World Economic Outlook, April.
• IMF (1999), Safeguarding Macroeconomic Stability at Low Inflation, World Economic Outlook, October.
• Jackowicz, K. (2002), Japonia, w: Kryzysy bankowe. Przyczyny i rozwiązania, red. M. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, PWE, Warszawa.
• Johnson, K., Smali, D., Tryon, R. (1999), Monetary Policy and Price Stability, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, nr 641.
• Jurek, M. (2004), Kontrowersje wokół skuteczności polityki pieniężnej Banku Japonii w latach 1990-2004, Bank i Kredyt, nr 7.
• Keynes, J.M. (1985), Ogólna teoria zatrudnienia, procentu i pieniądza, PWN, Warszawa.
• King, M. (1999), Challenges for Monetary Policy: New and Old, w: New Challenges for Monetary Policy. A Symposium Sponsored by The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
• Krugman, P.R. (1998a), It's Baack: Japan 's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap (mimeo).
• Krugman, P.R. (1998b), Japans Trap (mimeo).
• Laidler, D. (1999), The Exchange Rate Regime and Canada's Monetary Order, Bank of Canada Working Paper, nr 7.
• Meltzer, A. (2002), Comment on Japan and the Asian Financial Crisis (mimeo).
• Meltzer, A. (1999), Commentary: Monetary Policy at Zero Inflation, w: Proceedings of the Conference A Symposium Sponsored by The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
• Morimoto, Y., Hirata, W., Kalo, R. (2003), Global Disinflation, Bank of Japan (mimeo).
• NBP (2003), Raport o stabilności systemu finansowego, czerwiec 2001 - grudzień 2002, Warszawa.
• Okina, K., Taguchi, H., Shiratsuka, S. (2001), Introduction. Proceedings of the Ninth international Conference "The Role of Monetary Policy Under Low Inflation: Deflationary Shocks and Policy responses", Monetary and Economic Studies (Special Edition), Bank of Japan, February.
• Okina, K. (1999), Monetary Policy Under Zero Inflation: A Response to Criticisms and Questions Regarding Monetary Policy, Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary Policy and Economic Studies Discussion Paper Series, nr 99-e-20.
• Orphanides, A., Wieland, V. (1999), Efficient Monetary Policy Design Near Price Stability, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Working Papers, nr 67.
• Orphanides A., Wieland, V. (1998), Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness owhen Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Finance and Economic Discussion Series, nr 35.
• Parkin M., (2001), What Have We Learned About Price Stability? Proceedings of the Conference: Price Stability, Inflation Targets and Monetary Policy, Bank of Canada, Ottawa.
• Rada Polityki Pieniężnej (2004), Raport o inflacji w 2003 roku, NBP, Warszawa.
• Rada Polityki Pieniężnej (2003), Raport o inflacji w 2002 roku, NBP, Warszawa.
• Rada Polityki Pieniężnej (2004), Założenia polityki pieniężnej na 2005 rok, NBP, Warszawa.
• Rada Polityki Pieniężnej (2002), Założenia polityki pieniężnej na 2003 rok, NBP, Warszawa.
• Reifschneider, D., Williams, J.C., (1999), Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Finance and Economic Discussion Series nr 44.
• Snowdon, B., Vane, H., Wynarczyk, P., (1998), Współczesne nurty teorii makro ekonomii, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
• Summers, L. (1991), Panel Discussion: Price Stability How Should Long-Term Monetary Policy Be Determinated! Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, nr 23.
• Svensson, L.E.O. (2002a), Liquidity Traps, Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting and Euro-system Monetary-Policy Strategy, NBER Reporter, Winter.
• Svensson, L.E.O. (2002b), Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization, w: Rethinking Stabilization Policy. A Symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
• Svensson, L.E.O. (2001), The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Woolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap, Monetary and Economic Studies (Special Edition), February.
• Svensson, L.E.O. (1999), How Should Monetary Policy Be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability? w: New Challenges for Monetary Policy. A Symposium Sponsored by The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
• Taylor, J.B. (2001), Monetary Policy Guidelines for Employment and Inflation Stability, w; Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy, ed. B.M. Franklin, The MIT Press, London.
• Tinsley, P.A. (1999), Short Rate Expectations, Term Premiums, and Central Bank Use of Derivates to Reduce Policy Uncertainty, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Financial and Economic Discussion Series, nr 14.
• Ueda, K. (2000), The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy Near Zero Interest Rates: The Japanese Experience 1998-2000, Bank of Japan.
• Ullersma, C.A. (2002), The Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness: A Survey, OCFEB Research center for Economic Policy, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
• Wojtyna, A. (2001), Skuteczność polityki pieniężnej w warunkach niskiej inflacji: problem zerowych nominalnych stóp procentowych, Bank i Kredyt, nr 7.
• Woodford, M. (1999), Commentary: How Should Monetary Policy Be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability"? w: New Challenges for Monetary Policy. A Symposium Sponsored by The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
• Vinals, J. (2000), Monetary Policy Issues in a Low Inflation Environment, Proceedings of Central Banking Conference "Why Price Stability?", ECB.
• Yates, T. (2002), Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound to Interest Rates: A Review, ECB Working Papers, nr 190.