Inflacja bieżąca a różne miary oczekiwań inflacyjnych konsumentów w wybranych krajach

• Autorzy: Tomasz Łyziak , Ewa Stanisławska

Warianty tytułu

Current Inflation and Different Measures of Consumer Inflation Expectations in Selected Countries

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W artykule przedstawiono przesłanki zainteresowania współczesnej makroekonomii problematyką oczekiwań inflacyjnych oraz zakres informacji na ich temat wykorzystywany w badaniach empirycznych. Zaprezentowano wyniki badań porównawczych dotyczących wpływu bieżącej inflacji na oczekiwania inflacyjne osób prywatnych. W badaniach wykorzystano jakościowe i ilościowe dane ankietowe z wybranych krajów Unii Europejskiej, Australii i Stanów Zjednoczonych.

EN

The aim of our study is to present theoretical reasons staying behind the interest of contemporary macroeconomics in inflation expectations and to present the results of empirical analysis of the influence of current inflation on consumers' inflation expectations in various countries. We employ various measures of inflation expectations in our study (quantified probability measures based on qualitative survey questions, measures derived from quantitative survey questions, Phi statistics describing the distribution of answers to the qualitative survey question) in order to make a synthesis of the conclusions drawn. Our results suggest that the choice of the measurement method significantly influences the conclusions, however the results of the analysis of long-term characteristics of expectations are much more robust than it is the case with short-term characteristics. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Inflacja; Teoria racjonalnych oczekiwań; Makroekonomia; Analiza porównawcza

EN

Inflation; Rational expectations theory; Macroeconomics; Comparative analysis

• Czasopismo: Bank i Kredyt
• Rocznik: 2006
• Numer: nr 10
• Strony: 17--30

Twórcy

autor

Tomasz Łyziak

autor

Ewa Stanisławska

Bibliografia

• Adam K. (2005), Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation, "ECB Working Paper", No. 492, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main.
• Adam K., Padula M. (2003), Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States, "ECB Working Paper", No. 222, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main.
• Bakhshi H., Yates A. (1998), Are UK inflation expectations rational?, "Bank of England Working Paper", No. 81, Bank of England, London.
• Bank of England (2004), Inflation Report, February, Bank of England, London.
• Berk J.M. (2000), Consumer inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe, "DNB Staff Reports", No. 55, De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam.
• Berk J.M., Hebbink G. (2006), The anchoring of European inflation expectations, "DNB Working Paper", No. 116, De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam.
• Bryan M., Palmqvist S. (2005), Testing near rationality using detailed survey data, "Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series", No. 183, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm.
• Calvo G.A. (1983), Staggered prices in utility-maximizing framework, "Journal of Monetary Economics", Vol. 12, No. 3, s. 383-398.
• Carlson, J.A., Parkin M. (1975), Inflation expectations, "Economica", Vol. 42, No. 166, s. 123-138.
• Castelnuovo E. et. al. (2003), Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets: The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations, "ECB Working Paper", No. 273, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main.
• Curtin, R. (1996), Procedure to estimate price expectations, www.sca.isr.umich.edu/documents.php?c=I
• Forsells M., Kenny G. (2004), Survey expectations, rationality and the dynamics of euro area inflation, "Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis", Vol. 1, No. 1, s. 13-42.
• Friedman M. (1968), The role of monetary policy, "American Economic Review", Vol. 58, No.1, s. 1-17.
• Goodfriend M., King R.G. (1997), The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the role of monetary policy, w: B.S. Bernanke, J. Rotemberg (red.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, The MIT Press, Cambridge.
• Gürkaynak R., Levin A., Swanson E. (2006), Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? Evidence from long-term bond yields in the US, UK and Sweden, "Working Paper", No. 09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco.
• Jonung L. (1986), Uncertainty about inflationary perception and expectations, "Journal of Economic Psychology", Vol. 7, No. 3, s. 315-325.
• Keuzenkamp H.A. (1991), A precursor to Muth: Tinbergen`s 1932 model of rational expectations, "The Economic Journal", Vol. 101, No. 408, s. 1245-1253.
• Kokoszczyƒski R., ¸yziak T., StanisΠawska E. (2006), Consumer inflation expectations. Usefulness of survey-based measures - a cross-country study, materiał przedstawiony podczas konferencji "The Role of Inflation Expectations in Modelling and Monetary Policy-Making", Narodowy Bank Polski, Warszawa, 9-10 lutego 2006 r., www.nbp.pl
• Lucas R.E. (1976), Econometric policy evaluations: A critique, w: K. Brunner, A. H. Meltzer (red.), The Phillips Curve and labour markets, North Holland, Amsterdam.
• Łyziak T. (2003), Consumer inflation expectations in Poland, "ECB Working Paper", No. 287, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main.
• Łyziak T. (2004), Probabilistyczne metody pomiaru oczekiwań inflacyjnych osób prywatnych na podstawie danych ankietowych, "Bank i Kredyt", nr 8, s. 4-13.
• Łyziak T. (2005), Inflation targeting and consumer inflation expectations in Poland. A success story?, "Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis", Vol. 2, No. 2, s. 185-212.
• Łyziak T., Mackiewicz J., StanisΠawska E. (2006), Central bank transparency and credibility. The case of Poland, 1998 - 2004, "European Journal of Political Economy" (forthcoming).
• ¸Łyziak T., Stanisławska E. (2006), Consumer Inflation Expectations. Survey questions and quantification methods - the case of Poland, "MateriaΠy i Studia", No. 37, NBP, Warszawa.
• Mankiw N.G., Reis R. (2002), Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, "Quarterly Journal of Economics", Vol. 117, No. 4, s. 1295-1328.
• Muth J. F. (1961), Rational expectations and the theory of price movements, "Econometrica", Vol. 29, No. 3, s. 315-335.
• Paloviita M. (2002), Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations, "Discussion Paper", No. 20, Bank of Finland, Helsinki.
• Pesaran M.H. (1987), The limits to rational expectations, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
• Pesaran M.H., Weale M. (2006), Survey expectations, w: G. Elliot, C. W. J. Granger, A. Timmermann, Handbook of Economic Forecasting, North-Holland, Amsterdam (w druku).
• Phelps E.S. (1967), Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time, "Economica", Vol. 34, No. 135, s. 254-281.
• Reis R. (2005), Inattentive producers, "Working Paper", No. 11820, NBER, Cambridge.
• Roberts J.M. (1995), New Keynesian economics and the Phillips Curve, "Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking", Vol. 27, No. 4, s. 975-984.
• Roberts J.M. (1997), Is inflation sticky?, "Journal of Monetary Economics", Vol. 39, No. 2, s. 173-196.
• Rotemberg J. (1982), Monopolistic price adjustment and aggregate output, "Review of Economic Studies", Vol. 49, No. 158, s. 517-531.
• Sims Ch.A. (2005), Rational inattention: A research agenda, "Discussion Paper", No. 34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Berlin.
• Svendsen I. (1996), Empirical evidence on expectations, "Økonomiske Doktoravhandlinger", No. 28, Universitetet I Oslo, Oslo.
• Taylor J. (1980), Aggregate dynamics and staggered contracts, "Journal of Political Economy", Vol. 88, No. 1, s. 1-23.
• Tinbergen (1932), Ein problem der dynamic, "Zeitschrift fır Nationalökonomie", Vol. 3, No. 2, s. 169-184.