Dwustronna aukcja kombinatoryczna na predykcyjnych rynkach kontraktów binarnych

• Autorzy: Waldemar Stronka

Warianty tytułu

Double Combinatorial Auction at Prediction Markets of Binary Contracts

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Niniejszy artykuł prezentuje oryginalną ideę zorganizowania rynków predykcyjnych, na których notowane są kontrakty binarne, jako dwustronnych aukcji kombinatorycznych z kursami jednolitymi. Notowane kontrakty binarne powiązano z różnymi przedziałami wartości zmiennej prognozowanej. (fragment tekstu)

EN

The paper presents an original idea of organizing prediction markets of binary contracts as call double combinatorial auctions. There are different binary contracts tied to different intervals of a forecasted variable (e.g. number of units sold in the next year). The complete set of contracts covers the entire range of possible variable values and therefore market prices of contracts form the subjective probability distribution of the variable value. The market participants submit bundle Orders i.e. buy/sell Orders having one price and with specified quantities of different binary contracts which they want to buy/sell. The so-called 'winner determination problem' is solved by applying linear programming and the market price of each different binary contract can be determined by referring to the values of dual variables. It is shown that the proposed kind of market mechanism leads to more informationally efficient priées than continuous double auctions run for each contract separately. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Prognostyka; Metody prognozowania; Mechanizmy polityki rynkowej

EN

Forecaster; Forecasting methods; Market policy mechanisms

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu
• Rocznik: 2007
• Numer: nr 96
• Strony: 179--193

Twórcy

autor

Waldemar Stronka

Bibliografia

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