Cykliczne kształtowanie się inwestycji w zapasy - teoria a stylizowane fakty dotyczące Polski

• Autorzy: Łukasz Postek

Warianty tytułu

The Cyclical Behaviour of Inventory Investment - Theory and Stylized Facts for Poland

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Niniejszy artykuł stanowi próbę identyfikacji najważniejszych stylizowanych faktów, dotyczących cyklicznego kształtowania się poszczególnych kategorii inwestycji w zapasy w polskiej gospodarce. Dane rozpatrywane są w kontekście najważniejszych teorii zapasów za pomocą wskaźników analizy spektralnej i statystycznej. Pozwala to na jakościową ocenę relatywnej zgodności przedstawionych teorii z empirią. Ze względu na dużą heterogeniczność kształtowania się poszczególnych kategorii zapasów w przeprowadzonym badaniu wystąpiły liczne trudności związane z analizą danych zagregowanych do pozycji z rachunków narodowych. Dopiero analiza danych z formularzy F-01/I-01 GUS pozwala sformułować bardziej szczegółowe wnioski. Zapasy materiałów oraz zapasy towarów, choć ich zachowanie jest odmienne, wykazują największą zgodność z wnioskami z modelu (S, s). Zapasy produktów gotowych kształtują się zgodnie z istnieniem stockoutavoidance motive, podczas gdy zachowanie zapasów półproduktów i produkcji w toku jest zgodne z modelem wygładzania produkcji (production-smoothing). W szczególności, ostatnia obserwacja pozwala wyjaśnić fenomen niezgodnego z modelem wygładzania produkcji zachowania zapasów produktów gotowych. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

This article aims to identify the most important facts about the cyclical behaviour of inventory investment in the Polish economy. The data are considered in the context of the most popular theories with the use of statistical and spectral analysis, which allows to verify these theories. The research based on national accounts data faces restrictions caused by the significant heterogeneity in the behaviour of different inventory categories. Consequently, only an analysis based on the data from F-01/I-01 forms makes it possible to formulate more detailed conclusions. Inventories of materials and goods for resale show an essential conformity with the (S, s) model, though their behaviours differ. Finished goods inventory follows the stockout-avoidance motive, while work-inprogress inventory behaves as predicted by the production-smoothing model. Particularly, it helps to solve the puzzle why finished goods inventory does not smooth production. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Zapasy; Inwestycje; Analiza widmowa

EN

Inventories; Investment; Spectral analysis

• Czasopismo: Bank i Kredyt
• Rocznik: 2010
• Numer: nr 3
• Strony: 83--110

Twórcy

autor

Łukasz Postek

• Narodowy Bank Polski; Uniwersytet Warszawski

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