Refleksje nad tworzeniem nowego paradygmatu finansów

• Autorzy: Jarosław Mielcarek

Warianty tytułu

Reflections on a New Finance Paradigm Creation

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Opracowanie zostało poświęcone analizie trzech kluczowych zagadnień, gdy podejmuje się problem tworzenia nowego paradygmatu finansów, a więc paradygmatowi i jego kryzysowi, anomaliom na gruncie obowiązującego paradygmatu oraz czy powstają w finansach postępowe naukowe programy badawcze. (fragment tekstu)

EN

Reflections on paradigm and its crisis led to a conclusion that the most important symptom of a paradigm crisis is mainly not anomalies existence, it means phenomena excluded by the ruling paradigm, but cases of its falsifications, for example LOR, LTCM and JWM Partners funds insolvencies. Postulate to create a new finance paradigm results from acceptance of unexpected phenomena as anomalies. It leads to the not always explicitly expressed conclusion that the financial theories are no more progressive scientific research program, but transformed into degenerating one. Directions of the works on a new paradigm creation indicate on essential significance of sensitivity analysis. Full utilization of its capabilities requires to dispose a new paradigm enabling qualitative and quantitative predictions of some novel facts as threats. The present crisis is sometimes explained by means of the H. Minsky's financial instability theory and the G. Soros's reflexivity theory. The critical arguments directed at them indicate that probably no one of them can be accepted as a key element of a new paradigm. It requires to include into a new paradigm a speculative bubbles theory in order to overcome the deep financial theories crisis. Unfortunately the speculative bubbles models formulated within the rational expectations hypothesis, the behavioral finance and the imperfect knowledge economics are built only to explain already known facts, whereas the main progressive scientific research program feature lies in prediction of some novel facts. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Finanse; Analiza wrażliwości; Fundusze hedgingowe

EN

Finance; Sensitivity analysis; Hedge fund

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe / Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu
• Rocznik: 2010
• Numer: nr 144
• Strony: 46--59

Twórcy

autor

Jarosław Mielcarek

• Wyższa Szkoła Bankowa w Poznaniu

Bibliografia

• Bordo M.D., (2005), U.S. Housing Price Boom-Busts In Historical Perspective, Networks Financial Institute Policy Brief No. 2005-PB-02 at Indiana State University, October, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=923865.
• Burton K., Kishan S., (2009), Meriwether Said to Shut JWM Hedge Fund After Losses, http:// www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aU2YYpahTtOw, 8.07.2009.
• Caprio G., Klingebiel D., (2002), Episodes of Systemic and B order line Banking Crises, w: D. Klingebiel, L. Laeven, Managing the Real and Fiscal Effects of Banking Crises, World Bank Discussion Paper no. 428, The World Bank Washington D.C., s. 31-48, http://www.google.com/books?hl=pl&lr=&id=WYqB271Qd4oC&oi=fnd&pg=PA3&dq=Caprio+and+Klingebiel+in+Annual+World+Bank+Report+1997&ots=AykI2mHX-O&sig=RSfYu3ZlsEsCM4c-rk-jL-laJ-o