Does the Leading Index Predict in Real Time?

• Autorzy: Robert H. McGuckin , Ataman Ozyildirim
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper finds that the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) improves real-time out-of-sample forecasts of economic growth over periods from 1 to 9 months ahead. This is in contrast to earlier work that found the LEI failed when the analysis shifted beyond historical fitting exercises within the sample. Our results indicate that changes in the components of the leading index are linked to structural and institutional changes and improve real-time forecasts. (fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic and social phenomenon forecasting; Econometric models; Economic indicators

PL

Prognozowanie zjawisk ekonomiczno-społecznych; Modele ekonometryczne; Wskaźniki ekonomiczne

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2004
• Numer: nr 74 Composite indicators of business activity for macroeconomic analysis
• Strony: 83--93

Twórcy

autor

Robert H. McGuckin

autor

Ataman Ozyildirim

Bibliografia

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