Cyclical Convergence in the Euro Area : Evidence from the Economic Sentiment Indicator

• Autorzy: Jurgen Kroger , Nikolaos Sdrakas , Cedric Viguie
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In this paper we address the issue of convergence of business cycles by looking at the evidence provided by business and consumer opinions in the euro area member countries. The use of business and consumer survey data for measuring cyclical phenomena offers the advantage that the derived indicators do not, in general, exhibit a trend. Therefore, the analysis is not complicated by the difficult question of how to extract a trend from time series (see Zarnowitz and Ozyildirim, 2002; Canova, 1998). (fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Eurozone; Business cycles; Convergence

PL

Strefa euro; Cykl koniunkturalny; Konwergencja

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2004
• Numer: nr 74 Composite indicators of business activity for macroeconomic analysis
• Strony: 151--165

Twórcy

autor

Jurgen Kroger

• Directorate-General for Economic and Finance, European Commission

autor

Nikolaos Sdrakas

• Directorate-General for Economic and Finance, European Commission

autor

Cedric Viguie

• Directorate-General for Economic and Finance, European Commission

Bibliografia

• Agresti A.M., Mojon В., 2001. Some Stylised Facts of the Euro-area Business Cycle. "ECB Working Paper" 95.
• Altissimo F., et. al. 2001. The Construction of Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area Business Cycle. Termi di discussione 434. Banca d'Italia.
• Artis M.J., Zhang W., 1997. International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?, "International Journal of Finance and Economics 38, 1471-87.
• Bayoumi Т., Eichengreen В., 1993. Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification. [in:] F. Torres, F. Giavazzi (eds.), Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union, Cambridge University Press.
• Belo F., 2001. Some Facts about the Cyclical Convergence in the Euro Zone. Banco de Portugal Working Paper.
• Bjorksten N., 2000. Real Convergence in the Enlarged Euro Area: A Coming Challenge for Monetary Policy. "Bank of Finland Working Papers".
• Canova F., 1998. Detrending and Business Cycle Facts. "Journal of Monetary Economics" 41(3), 475-512.
• Carvalho V.M., Harvey A.C., 2002. Convergence and Cycles in the Euro-zone. Paper presented at the Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis. Luxembourg: Eurostat.
• Christodoulakis N., Dimelis S.P., Kollintzas T., 1995. Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncrasies and Regularities. "Economica" 62, 1-27.
• Döpke J., 1998. Stylised Facts of Euroland's Business Cycle. "Kiel Working Paper" 887.
• Huchet M., 2003. Does a Single Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Real Effects in EMU. "Journal of Policy Modelling" 25,151 -78.
• Forni M., Reichlin L.,1997. National Policies and Local Economies: Europe and the US. "CEPR Working Paper" 1632.
• Luginbuhl R., Koopman S.J., The Common Соnverging Trend-cycle Model: Estimation, Modelling and an Application to European Convergence. Paper presented at the Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis. Luxembourg: Eurostat.
• Lumsdaine R.L., Prasad E.S., 1997. Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations. NBER Working Paper 5984.
• Mitchel J., Mouratidis K., 2002. Is There a Common Euro-zone Business Cycle? Paper presented at the Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis. Luxembourg: Eurostat.
• Ormerod P., Mounfield C., 2001. The Convergence of European Business Cycles 1978-2000. Voltera Consulting Ltd.
• Plerou V., et. al. 1999. Universal and Non-universal Properties of Cross-correlations in Financial Time Series. "Physical Review Letter" 83, 1471.
• Valle e Azevedo J., 2002. Business Cycles: Cyclical Comovement within the European Union in the Period 1960-1999 - A Frequency Domain Approach. Banco de Portugal Working Paper.
• Zamowitz V., Ozyildirim A., 2002. Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles. "NBER Working Paper" 8736.