Leading and Coincident Indexes

• Autorzy: Sebastian Stolorz
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Poland is of growing importance in the European and global economy, especially once it becomes a member of the European Union. Since 1989, the Polish economy has undergone a transition process from central-planned into market economy. The market mechanism is just beginning to work and in many fields there is still too much state regulation and too little market rules. Especially while observing early stage of the transition, one should be aware of this. Approaches to measure business fluctuations in Poland have been already made by Drozdowicz-Bieć and Zarnowitz (2000). Much earlier Matkowski (1996) developed another set of composite indexes of business cycles for Poland. Some attempts to determine and describe cyclical patterns of development of the Polish economy were already made during the 1970s and 1980s, when the economy was centrally planned, but it showed fluctuations similar to those experienced by market economies. The aim of this paper is to present a set of leading and coincident business cycle indicators for Poland, developed strictly with the methodology used by The Conference Board. A brief history of this approach is presented in Section 2, and the methodology used in calculation of indicators is described in Section 3. (fragment of text)

Poland is of growing importance in the European and global economy, especially once it becomes a member of the European Union. Since 1989, the Polish economy has undergone a transition process from central-planned into market economy. The market mechanism is just beginning to work and in many fields there is still too much state regulation and too little market rules. Especially while observing early stage of the transition, one should be aware of this. Approaches to measure business fluctuations in Poland have been already made by Drozdowicz-Bieć and Zarnowitz (2000). Much earlier Matkowski (1996) developed another set of composite indexes of business cycles for Poland. Some attempts to determine and describe cyclical patterns of development of the Polish economy were already made during the 1970s and 1980s, when the economy was centrally planned, but it showed fluctuations similar to those experienced by market economies. The aim of this paper is to present a set of leading and coincident business cycle indicators for Poland, developed strictly with the methodology used by The Conference Board. A brief history of this approach is presented in Section 2, and the methodology used in calculation of indicators is described in Section 3. (fragment tekstu)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Statistical data analysis; Economic growth; Economic indicators

PL

Analiza danych statystycznych; Wzrost gospodarczy; Wskaźniki ekonomiczne

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2004
• Numer: nr 74 Composite indicators of business activity for macroeconomic analysis
• Strony: 341--355

Twórcy

autor

Sebastian Stolorz

• Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

Bibliografia

• Bry G., Boschan С., 1971. Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs. New York: NBER.
• Matkowski Z., 1996. Composite Leading Indicators for Poland and the Concept of the Reference Cycle. Paper prepared for the OECD Meeting on Leading Indicators. Paris: OECD.
• Mitchell W.C., Burns A.F. 1938. Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals. Bulletin 69. NBER.
• Zarnowitz V., Drozdowicz-Bieć M., 2000. The Coincident and Leading Indexes for Poland After Two Years of Observation. Paper prepared for the 25th CIRET Conference in Paris.