Business Tendency Surveys in Diagnosing and Forecasting the Market of Insurance Services in Poland

• Autorzy: Józef Garczarczyk , Marek Mocek , Iwona Olejnik
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper presents a business tendency survey applied to diagnose and forecast a business tendency in the insurance market in Poland in 1993-2004. Firstly a development of this market is discussed in relation to the Polish economy as a whole. Subsequently we concentrate on the main methodological assumptions and organizational aspects of the pioneer business surveys in Poland which have been conducted since 1993 by the Department of Marketing Research of the Poznań University of Economics. The research has been conducted quarterly and is dedicated to about 400-450 insurance units (from life and non-life companies), represented by their headquarters and randomly selected subsidiaries all over Poland. The applied questionnaire is discussed with a great emphasis on its structure and the scope of its research usage. The research results are presented in the form of simple indicators of economic situations and one synthetic index - the Poznań Index of Insurance Business Conditions (PIKU). Finally, some selected results which have been obtained for the accuracy of diagnosis and forecasts made for the Polish insurance market in 1993-2004 are discussed. Moreover, the effectiveness of a business tendency survey is also mentioned. (original abstract)

The paper presents a business tendency survey applied to diagnose and forecast a business tendency in the insurance market in Poland in 1993-2004. Firstly a development of this market is discussed in relation to the Polish economy as a whole. Subsequently we concentrate on the main methodological assumptions and organizational aspects of the pioneer business surveys in Poland which have been conducted since 1993 by the Department of Marketing Research of the Poznań University of Economics. The research has been conducted quarterly and is dedicated to about 400-450 insurance units (from life and non-life companies), represented by their headquarters and randomly selected subsidiaries all over Poland. The applied questionnaire is discussed with a great emphasis on its structure and the scope of its research usage. The research results are presented in the form of simple indicators of economic situations and one synthetic index - the Poznań Index of Insurance Business Conditions (PIKU). Finally, some selected results which have been obtained for the accuracy of diagnosis and forecasts made for the Polish insurance market in 1993-2004 are discussed. Moreover, the effectiveness of a business tendency survey is also mentioned. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Business trends; Insurance market; Forecasting; Insurances

PL

Koniunktura gospodarcza; Rynek ubezpieczeniowy; Prognozowanie; Ubezpieczenia

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2005
• Numer: nr 75
• Strony: 98--123

Twórcy

autor

Józef Garczarczyk

• Poznań University of Economics, Poland

autor

Marek Mocek

• Poznań University of Economics, Poland

autor

Iwona Olejnik

• Poznań University of Economics, Poland

Bibliografia

• Cieślak M., (1997), Prognozowanie gospodarcze, PWN, Warszawa.
• Garczarczyk J., Matusewicz R., (2002), Economic Performance in the Polish Banking Sector. Accuracy Evaluation of the Results Obtained from the Business Tendency Survey, 26th CIRET Conference, Taipei.
• Garczarczyk J., Matusewicz R., Mocek M., (2001), Koniunktura na rynku bankowym i ubezpieczeniowym w Polsce, Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu, Poznań.
• Koniunktura gospodarcza w Polsce (1999), Adamowicz, E. (red), Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego, SGH, Warszawa.
• Sangowski T., (2002), Polski rynek ubezpieczeń - stan i kierunki rozwoju, [in:] Ubezpieczenia w gospodarce rynkowej, Branta, Poznań.
• Sigma, 2003, no. 8.
• Zeliaś A., (1997), Teoria prognozy, PWE, Warszawa.