Czasopismo
2005
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nr 75 Economic tendency surveys and cyclical indicators : Polish contribution to the 27th CIRET conference
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242--257
Tytuł artykułu
Autorzy
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
Nowadays it is possible to observe growing importance of the microeconomic basics as means of securing macroeconomic balance. Integrated growth and fluctuation research is considered to be modern. It is also assumed that real processes are decisive in explanation of economic fluctuation. Employing the real business cycle theory and the business cycle test as a method of fluctuation measurement, it is possible to isolate enterprise economic activity phases by means of several selected qualitative indicators. The easy method provides good results especially for emerging and young market economies, where time series are relatively short and the influence of exogenous agents is fairly high. Economies such as Poland operate under the conditions of transformation and globalisation. At the same time they are governed by general technological shocks. On the basis of the carried out analysis it is possible to define time spans that may be a basis for differentiating diverse in quality economic phases related to a growth path defined by GNP growth rate. The business cycle test has been applied to conduct enterprise economic activity studies since the mid 1992. The enquiries concern industry, building industry and commerce. Since then qualitative indicators time series have been available. The author concludes as follows: First of all, according to the course of business cycle test indicators there is some logical foundation to divide the period of 1996-2003 into 1996-2001 and 2002 up-to date. Secondly, well-founded is the hypothesis that 1996-1999 was the period when in Polish economy a substantial microeconomic restructuring process took place. The end of this period, especially the year 1999 can be perceived as a kind of breakthrough, which is confirmed by various data quoted in this paper. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Strony
242--257
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
autor
- Poznań University of Economics, Poland
Bibliografia
- Hansen G.D., Prescott E.D., (1993), Did Technology Cause the 1990-1991 Recession? American Economic Review, May 1993.
- Kokocińska M., (2002), Sytuacja koniunkturalna a konkurencyjność, [in:] (ed.) Skawińska, E., Konkurencyjność przedsiębiorstw, nowe podejście, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN Warszawa - Poznań, pp. 113-144.
- Rekowski M., (ed.) (2003), Wskaźniki wyprzedzające jako metoda prognozowania koniunktury w Polsce, Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, Poznań.
- Szymański W., (2002), Globalizacja a konkurencja i mikroekonomiczne podstawy równowagi makroekonomicznej, [in:] Przedsiębiorstwo wobec globalizacji i integracji, W. Szymański et al., Szkoła Główna Handlowa, Warszawa, Oficyna Wydawnicza, p. 20.
- Snowdon В., Vane H., Wynarczyk P., (1998), Współczesne nurty teorii makroekonomii. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, p. 257.
- Poland Quarterly Statistics, Central Statistical Office, vol. XII 20003, no 2 Warsaw, Jan 2004, pp. 66-71.
- Bankier, Magazyn klientów korporacyjnych, 2003, no 2, p 6.
- Koniunktura w przemyśle, budownictwie i handlu, CSO, Warsaw, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2004. A monthly and quarterly survey.
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
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Identyfikator YADDA
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