Międzynarodowy system monetarny a globalny kryzys finansowy : wnioski dla polityki makroekonomicznej w krajach rozwijających się

• Autorzy: Piotr Ciżkowicz , Andrzej Rzońca

Warianty tytułu

International Monetary System and Global Financial Crisis: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy in the Developing Countries

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Niniejszy artykuł pokazuje, że zasadnicze przyczyny ostatniego globalnego kryzysu finansowego, tzn. niskie stopy procentowe w głównych krajach wysoko rozwiniętych oraz nadwyżkowe oszczędności w krajach rozwijających się, można wiązać z ułomnościami międzynarodowego systemu monetarnego. Autorzy twierdzą, że ułomności te nasiliły się na skutek kryzysu. Wniosek ten służy do zarysowania prawdopodobnego kształtu polityki makroekonomicznej w głównych krajach wysoko rozwiniętych oraz w krajach rozwijających się. Autorzy zwracają uwagę na koszty polityki makroekonomicznej prowadzonej przez główne kraje wysoko rozwinięte w reakcji na kryzys, które wyrażają się przede wszystkim w opóźnianiu restrukturyzacji. Następnie omawiają zagrożenia, jakie reakcja ta rodzi dla krajów rozwijających się. W opinii autorów zagrożenia te uzasadniają prowadzenie polityki makroekonomicznej w sposób wydłużający okres dochodzenia do wysokiej aktywności gospodarczej. Wsparciem dla zdyscyplinowanej polityki makroekonomicznej mogą być pewne regulacje makroostrożnościowe. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The paper shows that the basic causes of the recent global financial crisis, e.i. low interest rates in major developed economies combined with surplus savings in the developing countries, may be linked with the deficiencies inherent in the international monetary system. The authors argue that these deficiencies have amplified as the result of the crisis. This conclusion serves to project the probable design of macroeconomic policies to be performed in the developed and developing countries. The authors point at high costs of the macroeconomic policy performed by the major developed countries in their reaction to the crisis, which are reflected mainly in the delayed restructuring of the economies. Then the authors discuss the threats that arise from this reaction for the development of the emerging economies. In their opinion, this situation may justify a deliberate policy of a slower revival. The more disciplined fiscal and monetary policy may be supported by some precautionary regulations. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Międzynarodowe systemy monetarne; Kryzys finansowy; Polityka makroekonomiczna; Kraje rozwijające się

EN

International monetary systems; Financial crisis; Macroeconomic policy; Developing countries

• Czasopismo: Ekonomista
• Rocznik: 2013
• Numer: nr 5
• Strony: 625--645

Twórcy

autor

Piotr Ciżkowicz

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

autor

Andrzej Rzońca

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie; Narodowy Bank Polski

Bibliografia

• Adrian T., Shin H., Liquidity and Leverage, "FRB Staff Report" 2009, nr 328.
• Ahuja A., Chalk N., Nabar M., N'Diaye P., Porter N.,An End to China's Imbalances?, IMF Working Paper 2012, nr 100.
• Angeloni I., Bénassy-Quéré A., Carton B., Darvas Z., Destais Ch., Pisani-Ferry J., Sapir A., Vallée S., Global Currencies for Tomorrow: A European Perspective, CEPII Research Report 2011, nr 01, Bruegel Blueprint 13.
• Baba N., Nishioka S., Oda N., Shirakawa M., Ueda K., Ugai H., Japan's Deflation, Problems in the Financial System and Monetary Policy, BIS Working Paper 2005, nr 188.
• Bakker B., Guide A., The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States: Bad Luck or Bad Policies?, IMF Working Paper2010, nr 130.
• Bank Swiatowy, Global Economic Prospects. Uncertainties and Vulnerabilities, Washington D.C., World Bank 2012.
• Bénassy-Quéré A., Pisani-Ferry J., What International Monetary System for a Fast-Changing World Economy?, Bruegel Working Paper 2011, nr 06.
• Bénassy-Quéré A., Pisani-Ferry J., Yongding Y., Reform of the International Monetary System: Some Concrete Steps, "Bruegel Policy Contribution" 2011, nr 03.
• Bernanke B.S., The Global Saving Glut and the US. Current Account Deficit, The Sandrid-ge Lecture Richmond, 2005.
• Bernanke B.S., Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble, Remarks at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association Atlanta, Georgia 2010.
• Bernanke B.S., Gertler M., Agency Costs, Collateral, and Business Fluctuations, NBER Working Papers 1986, nr 2015.
• Bernanke B.S., Gertler M., How Should Central Bankers Respond to Asset Prices?, "American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings" 2010, nr 91(2).
• Bester H., Screening Versus Rationing in Credit Markets with Imperfect Information, "American Economic Review" 1985, nr 75.
• BIS, Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in 2010 - Final Results, Bank for International Settlements, Basel, December 2010.
• Blanchard O.J., Debt, Deficits, and Finite Hońzons, "The Journal of Political Economy" 1985 nr 93(2).
• Blanchard O.J., Comment on GiavazziandPagano, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990.
• Borio C.E.V., Zhu H., Capital Regulation, Risk-taking and Monetary Policy: A Missing Link in the Transmission Mechanism?, BIS Working Paper 2008, nr 268.
• Bracke T, Bunda I., Exchange Rate Anchoring. Is There Still a De Facto US Dollar Standard?, ECB Working Paper 2011, nr 1353.
• Bracke T, Fidora M., Global Liquidity Glut or Global Savings Glut? A Structural VAR Approach, ECB Working Paper 2008, nr 911.
• Brunnermeier M., Crocket A., Goodhart Ch., Persaud A.D., Shin H., The Fundamental Principles of Financial Regulation, "Geneva Reports on the World Economy" 2009, nr 11.
• Brzoza-Brzezina M., Chmielewski T, Niedźwiedzińska J., Substitution Between Domestic and Foreign Currency Loans in Central Europe. Do Central Banks Matter?, ECB Working Paper 2010, nr 1187.
• Bullard J., Seven Faces of "The Peńl", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 2010, nr 92(5).
• Caballero R., Hoshi T, Kashyap A.K., Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan, NBER Working Paper 2006, nr 12129.
• Caballero R., Krishnamurthy A., Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility, "American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings" 2009, nr 99(2).
• Caballero R. J., Specificity and the Macroeconomics of Restructuring, MIT Press Books, The MIT Press 2007 1(1).
• Calvo G.A., Reinhart CM., Fear of Floating, "Quarterly Journal of Economics" 2002, nr 67(2).
• Chen J., Imam P., Consequences of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets, IMF Working Paper 2012, nr 102.
• Chmielewski T, Sławiński A., Wykorzystanie instrumentów nadzorczych w polityce makro-stabilnościowej, "Zarządzanie publiczne" 2010, nr 13(3).
• Ciżkowicz P, Rzońca A., Skutki ekspansji fiskalnej w warunkach stóp procentowych bliskich zera, "Zarządzanie publiczne" 2011, nr 2-3(16-17).
• CovalJ.D., Jurek J.W., Stafford E., Economic Catastrophe Bonds, "American Economic Review" 2009, nr 99.
• Dale S., Inflation Targeting: Learning the Lessons from the Financial Crisis, Remarks at the Society of Business Economists' Annual Conference, London 2009.
• Diamond D.W., Rajan R.G., The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies, "American Economic Review. Papers and Proceedings" 2009a, nr 99.
• Diamond D.W., Rajan R.G., Illiquidity and Interest Rate Policy, "NBER Working Paper" 2009b, nr 15197.
• Foster L., Haltiwanger J.C., Krizan C. J., Aggregate Productivity Growth. Lessons from Mi-croeconomic Evidence, NBER Chapters, pp. 303-372, w: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2000.
• Foster L., Haltiwanger J., Krizan C.J., Market Selection, Reallocation, and Restructuring in the U.S. Retail Trade Sector in the 1990s, "The Review of Economics and Statistics", MIT Press 2006, nr 88(4).
• G-20, Final Report of the G20 Working Group on the Reform of the International Monetary System (IMS), September 2011.
• Gagnon J.E., Global Imbalances and Foreign Asset Expansion by Developing Economy Central Banks, Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 2012, nr 12-5.
• Gavin M., Hausmann R., Perotti R., Talvi E., Managing fiscal policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness, Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper 1996, nr 326.
• Ghosh A., International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?, "Economic Journal" 1995, nr 105(428).
• Ghosh A.R., Kim J., Qureshi M.S., Zalduendo J., Surges, IMF Working Paper 2012, nr 22.
• Greenspan A., Opening Remarks, Speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, 2002.
• Greenwald B., Stiglitz, J.E., Weiss A., Informational Imperfections in the Capital Market and Macroeconomic Fluctuations, "American Economic Review" 1984, nr 74(2).
• Griliches Z., Regev H., Firm Productivity in Israeli Industry, 1979-1988, "Journal of Econometrics" 1995, 65(1).
• Hamao Y., Mei J., Xu Y., Unique Symptoms of Iapáñese Stagnation: An Equity Market Perspective, "Journal of Money, Credit and Banking" 2007, nr 39(4).
• Hannoun H., Monetary Policy in the Crisis: Testing the Limits of Monetary Policy, Speech at the 47th SEACEN Governors' Conference in Seoul 2012.
• Hosono K., Sakuragawa M., Soft Budget Problems in the Japanese Credit Market, Nagoya City University Discussion Papers in Economics 2003, nr 345.
• Ilzetzki E., Vegh C.A., Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?, "NBER Working Paper" 2008, nr 14191.
• Kaminsky G., Reinhart C, Végh C, When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies, NBER Working Paper 2004, nr 10780.
• Kobayashi T, Spiegel M.M., Yamori N., Quantitative Easing and Japanese Bank Equity Values, "Journal of the Japanese and International Economies" 2006, nr 20(4).
• Leland H.E., Pyle D.H., Informational Asymmetries, Financial Structure, and Financial Intermediation, "Journal of Finance" 1977, nr 32(2).
• Levechenko A., Lewis L., Tesar L., The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis, NBER Working Paper 2010, nr 16006.
• Mackiewicz M., Stabilizacyjna polityka fiskalna w krajach OECD, Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa 2010.
• Magud N.E., Reinhart CM., Vesperoni E.R., Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms, "IMF Working Paper" 2012, nr 12/41.
• Malmendier U., Nagel S., Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-taking?, NBER Working Paper 2009, nr 14813.
• McKinnon R., The Rules of the Game: International Money in Historical Perspective, "Journal of Economic Literature", Vol. 31., No. 1 (March), pp. 1-44,1993.
• Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy, Lessons of the Financial Crisis for Future Regulation of Financial Institutions and Markets and for Liquidity Management, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., February 2009a.
• Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy, World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., October 2009b.
• Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy, Central Banking Lessons from the Cńsis, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. 2010.
• Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy, Ukraine: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2008 Stand-By Arrangement, IMF Country Report 2011, nr 325.
• Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy, World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., April 2012.
• Moshirian F, The Global Financial Crisis and the Evolution of Markets, Institutions and Regulation, "Journal of Banking &Finance" 2011, nr 35.
• Nakakuki M., Otani A., Shiratsuka S., Distortions in Factor Markets and Structural Adjustments in the Economy, "Monetary and Economic Studies" 2004, nr 22(2).
• Nechio F, Monetary Policy When One Size Does Not Fit All, "FRBSF Economic Letter", June 2011.
• Obstfeld M., Rogoff K., Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes, "Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper" 2009, nr 7606.
• Olivier J., Growth-enhancing Bubbles, "International Economic Review", Vol. 41, Issue 1 (February), pp. 133-151, 2000.
• Peek J., Rosengren E., Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan, "American Economic Review" 2005, nr 95(4).
• Rosenberg Ch., Central and Eastern Europe: Global Spillovers and External Vulnerabilities, Presentation at the ICEG Annual Conference in Brussels, May 2012.
• Rzońca A., Niekeynesowskie skutki zacieśnienia polityki fiskalnej. Zmodyfikowany model Blancharda. CzęśćII, "Bank i Kredyt" 2004, 34(11-12).
• Schadler S., Mody A., Abiad A., Leigh D., Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union, "IMF Occasional Paper" 2006, nr 252.
• Smith D.C., Loans to Japanese Borrowers, "Journal of Japanese and International Economies" 2003, nr 17(3).
• Spiegel M.M., Did Quantitative Easing by the Bank of Japan "Work"?, "FRBSF Economic Letter" 2006, nr 28.
• Taylor J.B., Getting off Track: How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged, and Worsened the Financial Crisis, Hoover Institution Press, Stanford 2009.
• Walsh C.E., Using Monetary Policy to Stabilize Economic Activity, Paper prepared for the Jackson Hole Symposium organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, 2009.
• Warnock F, Warnock V.C., International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates, "Journal of International Money and Finance" 2009, nr 28.
• Zagadki wzrostu gospodarczego. Siły napędowe i kryzysy - analiza porównawcza, red. L. Balcerowicz, A. Rzońca, C.H. Beck, Warszawa 2010.