To the Abyss and Beyond

• Autorzy: Antonin Rusek
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Life cycle hypothesis and Solow neo-classical growth concepts are used to construct and estimate VAR models of USA's GDP dynamics. Conditional forecasts are then made for those two variables for the next two years, using different assumptions regarding the future dynamics of the household's net worth. Results show that under all assumptions the US GDP growth GDP remains sluggish. The historical peak GDP level (achieved in Q2 from 2008) is not achieved by the Q1 of 2011. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic development; Macroeconomic modelling of economy; Macroeconomic forecasting

PL

Rozwój gospodarczy; Modelowanie makroekonomiczne gospodarki; Prognozowanie makroekonomiczne

• Czasopismo: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
• Rocznik: 2010
• Tom: 241 Macroeconomic Aspects of European Integration
• Strony: 7--15

Twórcy

autor

Antonin Rusek

• Susquehanna University, USA

Bibliografia

• Gordon, Robert J. (2009), Green Shots or Dead Twig: Can Unemployment Claims Predict the End of American Recession? VoxEU, May 1st.
• Global Financial Stability Report (2009), Responding to the Financial Crisis And Measuring Systemic Risk. IMF, Washinhton D.C., April.
• Jappelli, Tulio; Modigliani, Franco (1998), The Age-Saving Profile and the Lifecycle Hypothesis. Center for Studies in Economics and Finance, University of Naples, Italy, No. 09, November.
• World Economic Outlook (2009), Crisis and Recovery. IMF, Washinhton D.C., April.

Identyfikatory

DOI

11089/438