Assessment of Composite Leading Indicators Usefulness in Forecasting Loans and Deposits Cyclical Fluctuations

• Autorzy: Józef Garczarczyk , Robert Skikiewicz
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The article has been focused on the application of the business cycle barometers for predicting the cyclical fluctuations of the two main categories in the banking market in Poland - PLN loans and PLN deposits. The barometers built for the first time for the Polish banking sector are based on sets of indicators, including both quantitative variables (official statistics data) and qualitative (among others derived from the business tendency survey conducted in the banking sector). Among the components of barometers both macro-economic indicators for the whole economy, as well as the variables from the financial sector and other sectors (including industry and trade) were used. The main aim of the article has been an evaluation of the characteristics of various types of composite leading indicators constructed on the basis of differentiated sets of variables. Then an attempt to construct three types of barometers: with the short, medium and long lead was made. In addition, the best composite leading indicators for each reference variable - PLN loans and PLN deposits were chosen. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Banking sector; Business cycle indicators; Forecasting; Cyclical fluctuations

PL

Sektor bankowy; Barometry koniunktury; Prognozowanie; Wahania cykliczne

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2011
• Numer: nr 86 Business Surveys, Business Cycles. Polish Contribution to the 30th CIRET Conference
• Strony: 135--160

Twórcy

autor

Józef Garczarczyk

• Poznań University of Economics, Poland

autor

Robert Skikiewicz

• Poznań University of Economics, Poland

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