Problem naruszania zasad teorii oczekiwanej użyteczności na przykładzie paradoksu Allais

• Autorzy: Agata Gluzicka

Warianty tytułu

The Allais Paradox as an Example of the Incompatibility with the Expected Utility Theory

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W artykule przedstawiono wybrane z literatury przedmiotu eksperymenty związane z paradoksem Allais. Przegląd tych eksperymentów miał na celu prezentację samego paradoksu oraz związanego z nim efektu pewności, efektu wspólnych konsekwencji i efektu wspólnego czynnika. Omówione zostały również wybrane sposoby redukcji stopnia naruszenia zasad teorii oczekiwanej użyteczności. (fragment tekstu)

EN

Theorems about the rational decision making play very important role in the decision theory. According to these theorems people make their decisions by using the rule about maximum benefits. However in the literature we can find conclusions from research and experiments which indicate that when people are making decisions, they are very often breaking that rule about maximum profits. According to that research a few paradoxes of rationality were formulated. In this article experiments concerning the Allais paradoxes are analyzed. The incompatibility between paradox and the expected utility theory were discussed. Also the certainty effect and the common consequence effect were analyzed. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Teoria oczekiwanej użyteczności; Podejmowanie decyzji; Paradoks Allais

EN

Expected utility theory; Decision making; Allais paradox

• Czasopismo: Studia Ekonomiczne / Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
• Rocznik: 2013
• Numer: nr 135 Analiza i wspomaganie decyzji
• Strony: 51--63

Twórcy

autor

Agata Gluzicka

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach

Bibliografia

• Abdellaoui M. (2002): Economic Rationality under Uncertainty. GRID-CNRS, ENS de Cachan.
• Andreoni J., Sprenger C. (2010): Certain and Uncertain Utility the Allais Paradox and Five Decision Theory Phenomena. "Levine's Working Paper Archive".
• Birnbaum M.H. (2004): Causes of Allais Common Consequence Paradoxes: An Experimental Dissection. "Journal of Mathematical Psychology", 48(2).
• Birnbaum M.H., Schmidt U. (2010): Allais Paradoxes can be Reversed by Presenting Choices in Canonical Split Form. "Kiel Working Paper", No. 1615.
• Blavatsky P.R. (2010): Reverse Common Ratio Effect. "Journal of Risk Uncertain", No. 40.
• Burke M.S., Carter J.R., Gomniak R.D., Ohl D.F. (1996): An Experimental Note on the Allais Paradox and Monetary Incomes. "Empirical Economics", No. 21.
• Conlisk J. (1989): Three Variants on the Allais Experiments. "The American Economic Review", No. 79.
• Harrison G.W. (1994): Expected Utility and the Experimentalists. "Empirical Economics", No. 19.
• Huck S., Muller W. (2007): Allais for All: Revisiting the Paradox. "ELSE Working Papers" No. 289.
• Kahneman D., Tversky A. (1979): Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. "Econometrica", Vol. 47, No. 2.
• Machina M.J. (2004): Nonexpected Utility Theory. W: Encyclopedia Of Actuarial Science. Red. J.L. Teugels, B. Sundt. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
• Quiggin J. (1981): A Theory of Anticipated Utility. "Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization", 3.
• Shu L. (1993): What is Wrong with Allais' Certainty Effect? "Journal of Behavioral Decision Making", Vol. 6.
• Tversky A., Kahneman D. (1992): Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. "Journal of Risk and Uncertainty", 5.
• Wakker P., Tversky A. (1993): An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory. "Journal of Risk and Uncertainty", 7.