Warianty tytułu
Perception of the Past and Predictability of the Future
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
In the article, essential conceptual assumptions for global analyses of future are discussed. While recognizing the shift in perception of the evolutionary process from determinism to spontaneity and haphazardness the author argues that this does not deprive the man of his capacity of anticipating the variability tendencies, constructing scenarios or formulating future options. Recognition of spontaneity and haphazardness, and thereby of imperfection of anticipations, is being presented as the philosophical generalization of a universal validity. It is a great misunderstanding to think of spontaneity as antithetical to control of processes. The existence of a controlled spontaneity had to be admitted. However, what is new is the postulate of a spontaneity controlled at the global scale. This is a challenge which the man is faced with, at the present time. The various aspects of that challenge are discussed. In particular, the "acceleration" of variability is analyzed and the question is asked whether it can be recognized as a lasting developmental tendency. For the purposes of anticipation of future, the long-term experience of the man's cultural evolution should be taken in account. Very important observations result from reviewing the experience of cultural creativity since the neolithic revolution. The comparison of some features of that revolution with the great change facing now the man is very instructive. In the context of that rich experience some methods of controlling the spontaneous variability are considered. (original abstract)
Twórcy
autor
Bibliografia
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171277239
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