Stylised Facts in Cyclical Fluctuations of Business Survey Data,

• Autorzy: Elżbieta Adamowicz , Konrad Walczyk
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

The paper discusses cyclical fluctuations of business activity in selected sectors of the Polish economy, with the use of business confidence indicators. We analyse main morphological features of the cyclical fluctuations: phase duration, timing of turning points, amplitudes, intensity and leads/lags of qualitative indicators in reference to GDP, and cross-correlations. Four sectors of the economy are analysed: manufacturing, construction, motor transport and retail trade. We make an insight into empirical regularities of cyclical fluctuations, known as stylised facts. We particularly aim to examine the following stylised facts about business cycles in Poland, ie (1) whether manufacturing contributes the highest to a business cycle, (2) construction and transport are leading sectors of the economy, and (3) retail sales stabilise general business activity.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Business cycles; Economy; Gross domestic product (GDP); Qualitative coefficients; Cyclical fluctuations

PL

Cykl koniunkturalny; Gospodarka; Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB); Wskaźniki jakościowe; Wahania cykliczne

• Czasopismo: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 2013
• Numer: nr 93 Expectations and Forecasting
• Strony: 123--142

Twórcy

autor

Elżbieta Adamowicz

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

autor

Konrad Walczyk

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

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