The Analysis of the Forecast Quality Depending on the Length of Forecast Horizon

• Autorzy: Anna Szmit
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In this paper an attempt to analyse the rate of worsening of forecast accuracy as their horizon lengthens has been presented on the basis of the forecasts obtained with the help of the chosen linear regression models. The mean forecast errors, ex ante and ex post, were used as the basic measures of evaluating the forecast accuracy. Hence, the analysis of the forecast quality as dependent on the length of the forecast horizon will be considered from these two points of view.(fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Forecasting; Forecasting methods; Econometric forecasts; Qualitative analysis

PL

Prognozowanie; Metody prognozowania; Prognozy ekonometryczne; Analiza jakościowa

• Czasopismo: Dynamic Econometric Models
• Rocznik: 2004
• Tom: 6
• Strony: 241--246

Twórcy

autor

Anna Szmit

• Lodz University of Technology, Poland

Bibliografia

• Cieślak, M. (red.) (1999), Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody i zastosowania, PWN Publishing House, Warsaw.
• Szmit, A. (2002), Prognozowanie zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną. Studium empiryczne dla regionu łódzkiego, PhD Thesis, Technical University of Łódź 2002 (manuscript).
• Witkowska, D. (2002), Sztuczne sieci neuronowe i metody statystyczne, C. H. Beck Publishing House, Warsaw.
• Zeliaś, A. (1997), Teoria prognozy, Polish Economic Publishing House, Warsaw.