Metoda przekształcania planów reakcji na ryzyko w sieci Bayesa

• Autorzy: Łukasz Radliński

Warianty tytułu

A Method for Transforming Risk Response Plans to Bayesian Networks

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem niniejszej pracy jest opracowanie RRP2BN - metody przekształcania wiedzy zawartej w planach reakcji na ryzyko do postaci sieci Bayesa. Dzięki temu możliwe będzie przeprowadzanie analiz symulacyjnych, których nie da się przeprowadzić, korzystając z samych planów zarządzania ryzykiem. Metoda RRP2BN generuje sieci Bayesa zgodne ze szkieletem przyczynowo-skutkowym. Została ona zaimplementowana w postaci prototypu narzędzia informatycznego. Wstępne wyniki badań potwierdzają, że metoda może ułatwić i przyspieszyć początek procesu budowy sieci Bayesa, szczególnie ekspertom dziedzinowym bez doświadczenia w korzystaniu z sieci Bayesa czy podobnych metod.(fragment tekstu)

EN

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been successfully used in various fields, including software engineering and project management. One of the main obstacles preventing them from a wider use is a difficult and time-consuming process of building models. To partially solve this problem, we proposed an RRP2BN method, helping inexperienced users to start model-building process. This method generates BNs, both the structure and probability tables, from risk response plans. Resulting BN models have the most important variables and relationships defined. Then, a domain expert domain expert should adjust and extend them to make them ready to use in simulations.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Metodologia prognozowania; Sieci bayesowskie; Ryzyko

EN

Forecasting methodology; Bayesian network; Risk

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego. Studia Informatica
• Rocznik: 2011
• Numer: nr 27 Informatyka, technologie-społeczeństwo-zastosowania
• Strony: 71--84

Twórcy

autor

Łukasz Radliński

• Uniwersytet Szczeciński

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