Skutki kryzysu finansowego w sferze realnej w USA i wybranych krajach europejskich

• Autorzy: Elżbieta Adamowicz , Sławomir Dudek , Dawid Pachucki

Warianty tytułu

Financial Crisis Results in Real Economy in USA and Selected European Countries

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Przedmiotem analizy będzie badanie skutków kryzysu finansowego w sferze realnej USA i wybranych krajów europejskich: Niemiec, Francji, W. Brytanii, Polski, Czech, Węgier, Słowacji, Litwy, Łotwy i Estonii. Zmiany w sferze realnej będą analizowane z wykorzystaniem danych ilościowych i jakościowych, pochodzących z badań koniunktury. Celem analizy będzie badanie wyprzedzającego charakteru danych, pochodzących z badań koniunktury. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The currently observed downturn in economic activity is seen as the most serious one in post II World War history. The disturbances of financial markets have triggered the deepest globally-synchronized recession. In our research we would like to describe the influence of the financial crisis on the business cycles in the United States and selected European Union countries. We also would like to find out if the breakdown of the business and consumer survey results (Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industry Confidence Indicator, Construction Confidence Indicator, and Consumer Survey) was reflected in real data such as GDP, household consumption, gross fixed capital formation, industrial production, construction and assembly production. For the purpose of our analysis we have used data published by Eurostat. The only exception was the qualitative data for Poland which were taken from IRG SGH database. All the data were seasonally adjusted with use of Tramo-Seats procedure which also allowed us to remove the outliers. The business cycle frequencies were filtered out by the Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter. Then we identified the turning points with the use of Bry-Boschan routine implemented in BUSY software. Next, we computed the depth of recession starting from the latest peak and to the trough if it was recognized, or to the last available observation, if it was not recognized. In the case of quantitative data, we analyzed classical and deviation cycles. For qualitative data, only deviation cycles were considered. Our research identified the Baltic States as the most affected by the current recession. Poland was least affected. We also confirmed the leading behavior of qualitative data vs. the quantitative sets. It is worth noting that our research indicated the dependency of the depth of recession in quantitative data on the drop in surveys data. This however needs some more formal statistical analysis, especially to confirm the causality. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Kryzys finansowy; Badania koniunktury; Metody ilościowe w ekonomii

EN

Financial crisis; Business surveys; Quantitative methods in economics

• Czasopismo: Barometr Regionalny
• Rocznik: 2009
• Numer: nr 4(18)
• Strony: 7--18

Twórcy

autor

Elżbieta Adamowicz

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

autor

Sławomir Dudek

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

autor

Dawid Pachucki

• Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie

Bibliografia

• Adamowicz E., Dudek S., Pachucki D., Walczyk K. (2009): Kryzys finansowy i jego skutki w USA i wybranych krajach europejskich, badanie statutowe Katedry Ekonomii I SGH.
• Barczyk R., Kąse k L., Lubiński M., Marczewski K. (2006): Nowe oblicza cyklu koniunkturalnego, PWE, Warszawa.
• Boschan C., Bry G. (1971): Programmed Selection of Cyclical Turning Points, [w:] Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programmers', NBER, Cambridge.
• Christiano L., Fitzgerald T.J. (2003): The Band-pass Filter, "International Economic Review", Vol. 44, No. 2.
• Fiorentini G., Planas Ch. (2003): Busy Program - User Manual, Joint Research Centre of European Commission, Ispra.
• Fiorentini G., Planas Ch. (2008): Time Series Modeling with Busy, CIS8-CT-2004-502529 KEI,http://www.uni-trier.de/fileadmin/fb4/projekte/SurveyStatisticsNet/KEI-WP4-5-D4.3-D5.7.pdf.
• Zarnowitz V. (red.) (1972): The Business Cycle Today, NBER, New York.
• Zarnowitz V. (1992): Business Cycles. Theory, History, Indicators and Forecasting, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Identyfikatory

DOI

doi.org/10.56583/br.1400