Couples' socioeconomic resources and completed fertility in Poland

• Autorzy: Beata Osiewalska
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Recently, a growing number of studies have examined the impact of educational level and educational enrolment on the childbearing behaviour of both sexes. At the same time, other socioeconomic characteristics, such as educational field or occupation, are usually neglected or, if included, focus only on women. This study aims at analysing how socioeconomic resources of both partners in a couple affect their completed fertility in a relatively gender-conservative country - Poland. As a representative of the postsocialist European countries, Poland is an interesting case study, in which women are often double burdened and the conditions to develop a family are more difficult. Since behavioural drivers could differ between parents and childless couples, the Bayesian Zero-Inflated Poisson model consisting of two states (childlessness and parenthood) is applied. The first-wave Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) data for Poland from 2011 are used. The results confirm that including both partners' socioeconomic resources in the model increases the ability to characterise couples' childbearing behaviour. In particular, the occupation of both partners occurs to have a substantial influence on their completed family size. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Fertility; Bayesian inference; Demography

PL

Płodność; Wnioskowanie bayesowskie; Demografia

• Czasopismo: Studia Demograficzne
• Rocznik: 2015
• Numer: nr 1(167)
• Strony: 31--60

Twórcy

autor

Beata Osiewalska

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie

Bibliografia

• Abel G.J., Bijak J., Findlay A., McCollum D. and Wisniowski A., 2013, Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models, "Population and the Environment", vol. 35, no. 2, 183-203.
• Alkema L., Raftery A.E., Gerland P., Clark S.J., Pelletier F., Buettner T., Heilig G.K., 2011, Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries, "Demography", vol. 48, no. 3, 815-839.
• Andersson G., Scott K., 2007, Childbearing dynamics of couples in a universalistic welfare state: The role of labour-market status, country of origin, and gender, "Demographic Research", vol. 17, no. 30, 896-938.
• Andersson G., Neyer G., 2012, Gendering occupation and fertility. A comparison between Danish women's and men's childbearing behavior by occupational branches, Paper presented at the 2012 European Population Conference, Stockholm, June.
• Bagavos C., 2010, Education and childlessness: the relationship between educational field, educational level, employment and childlessness among Greek women born in 1955-1959, "Vienna Yearbook of Population Research", no. 8, 51-77.
• Bailey M.J., Guldi M.E., Hershbein B.J., 2014, Is There a Case for a "Second Demographic Transition"? Three Distinctive Features of the Post-1960 U.S. Fertility Decline [in:] L.P. Boustan, C. Frydman, R.A. Margo (eds.), Human Capital in History: The American Record (pp. 273-312), The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
• Barthold J. A., Myrskylä M., Jones O. R., 2012, Childlessness drives the sex difference in the association between income and reproductive success of modern Europeans, "Evolution and Human Behavior", no. 33, 628-638.
• Becker G.S., 1960, An Economic Analysis of Fertility [in:] Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries (pp. 209-231), Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research Conference Series 11, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
• Becker G.S., 1991, A Treatise on the Family, Harvard College, Cambridge.
• Begall K., Mills M., 2013, The influence of educational field, occupation, and occupational sex segregation on fertility in the Netherlands, "European Sociological Review", vol. 29, no. 4, 720-742.
• Bijak J., 2011, Forecasting International Migration in Europe. A Bayesian View, Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol. 24.
• Billari F.C., Graziani R., Melilli E., 2014, Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm, "Demography", vol. 51, no. 5, 1933-1954.
• Bordone V., Testa M.R., Osiewalska B., Skirbekk V., 2013, Intergenerational transmission of fertility in six European countries: the role of mother's socio-economic status, Paper presented at the 2014 European Population Conference, Budapest, June.
• Bryant J., Graham P., 2013, Bayesian Demographic Accounts: Subnational Population Estimation Using Multiple Data Sources, "Bayesian Analysis", vol. 8, no. 3, 591-622.
• Brzozowska Z., 2014, Fertility and education in Poland during state socialism, "Demographic Research", vol. 31, no. 12, 319-336.
• Central Statistical Office of Poland, 2014, Demographic Yearbook of Poland, Zakład Wydawnictw Statystycznych, Warszawa, table 54, 205.
• Central Statistical Office of Poland, Local Data Bank, online resource, http://stat.gov.pl/bdl/app/strona.html?p_name=indeks (access date: 12.05.2015).
• Fieder M., Huber S., 2007, The effects of sex and childlessness on the association between status and reproductive output in modern society, "Evolution and Human Behavior", no. 28, 392-398.
• Gayle V., Conelly R., Lambert P., 2015, A review of occupation-based social classifications for social research, CPC Working Paper 60, ESRC Centre for Population Change, UK.
• Hoem B., 2000, Entry into motherhood in Sweden: The influence of economic factors on the rise and fall in fertility, 1986-1997, "Demographic Research", vol. 2, no. 4.
• Hoem J., Neyer G., Andersson G., 2006a, Education and childlessness: The relationship between educational field, educational level, and childlessness among Swedish women born in 1955-59, "Demographic Research", vol. 14, no. 15, 331-380.
• Hoem J., Neyer G., Andersson G., 2006b, Educational attainment and ultimate fertility among Swedish women born in 1955-59, "Demographic Research", vol. 14, no. 16, 381-404.
• Jalovaara M., Miettinen A., 2013, Does his paycheck also matter? The socioeconomic resources of coresidential partners and entry into parenthood in Finland, "Demographic Research", vol. 28, no. 31, 881-916.
• Kocot-Górecka K., 2014, Społeczno-ekonomiczne predyktory poglądów kobiet i mężczyzn dotyczących kulturowych ról płci w Polsce, "Studia Demograficzne", no. 1/165, 29-53.
• Kohler H.P., Billari F.C., Ortega J.A., 2002, The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe during the 1990s, "Population and Development Review", vol. 28, no. 4, 641-680.
• Kohler H.P., Billari F.C., Ortega J. A., 2006, Low fertility in Europe: causes, implications and policy options [in:] F. R. Harris (ed.), The Baby Bust: Who Will do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes? (pp. 48-109), Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers.
• Kreyenfeld M., 2004, Fertility decisions in the FRG and GDR: An analysis with data from the German Fertility and Family Survey, "Demographic Research", Special Collection, vol. 3, no. 11, 275-318.
• Lambert D., 1992, Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression, with an Application to Defects in Manufacturing, "Technometrics", vol. 34, no. 1, 1-14.
• Lappegård T., Rønsen M., 2005, The multifaceted impact of education on entry into motherhood, "European Journal of Population", vol. 21, no. 1, 31-49.
• Martin-Garcia T., 2009, The impact of occupational sex-composition on women's fertility in Spain, "European Societies", no. 12, 113-133.
• Matysiak A., 2009, Employment first, then childbearing: Women's strategy in post-socialist Poland, "Population Studies", vol. 63, no. 3, 253-276.
• Matysiak A., 2014, Praca kobiet a macierzyństwo: rola poziomu wykształcenia i wykonywanego zawodu [in:] A. Matysiak (ed.), Nowe wzorce formowania i rozwoju rodziny w Polsce. Przyczyny oraz wpływ na zadowolenie z życia (pp. 77-104), Wydawnictwo Naukowe SCHOLAR, Warszawa.
• Matysiak A., Węziak-Białowolska D., 2013, Country-specific conditions for work and family reconciliation: an attempt at quantification. Zeszyty Naukowe ISiD Szkoła Główna Handlowa, no. 31.
• McDonald P., 2000, Gender equity, social institutions and the future of fertility, "Journal of Population Research", vol. 17, 1-16.
• McDonald P., 2006, Low fertility and the state: The efficacy of policy, "Population and Development Review", vol. 32, no. 3, 485-510.
• Muszyńska M., 2007, Structural and cultural determinants of fertility in Europe, Warsaw School of Economics Publisher, Warsaw.
• Neyer G.R., Hoem J.M., 2008, Education and permanent childlessness: Austria vs. Sweden; a research note, MPIDR Working Paper WP 2008-007, Rostock.
• Oppenheimer V. K., 1994, Women's rising employment and the future of the family in industrial societies, "Population and Development Review", vol. 20, no. 2, 293-342.
• Osiewalska B., 2013, Transmission of Fertility Pattern in Mother-Daughter Relation - Bayesian view (a case study of Austria), "Studia Demograficzne", no. 1/163, 3-35.
• Osiewalska B., 2015, Couple socioeconomic gender equality and fertility - A Bayesian analysis, CPC Working Paper 62, ESRC Centre for Population Change, UK.
• Osiewalski K., Zając B., 2011, Bayesowskie porównanie modeli zachowań prokreacyjnych [in:] E. Frątczak, I. Sobczak, M. Szreder (eds.), Prace i materiały Wydziału Zarządzania Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego. Wybrane problemy rozwoju demograficzno-społecznego Polski i metody ich badania (pp. 21-39), Fundacja Rozwoju Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego, Sopot.
• Pohlmeier W., Ulrich V., 1995, An Econometric Model of the Two-Part Decision making Process in the Demand for Health Care, "The Journal of Human Resources", vol. 30, no. 2, 339-361.
• Raftery A.E., Li N., Ševčíková H., Gerland P., Heilig G.K., 2012, Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries, "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA", vol. 109, no. 35, 13915-13921.
• Rao C.R., 1973, Linear Statistical Inference and its Applications. Second Edition, Wiley, New York.
• Schmertmann C., Zagheni E., Goldstein J.R., Myrskylä M., 2014, Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility, "Journal of the American Statistical Association", vol. 109, no. 506, 500-513.
• Soja E., 2005, Hipoteza Easterlina w świetle zachowań prokreacyjnych generacji urodzonych w latach 1942-1966 w Polsce, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa.
• The World Bank Indicators, online resources, http://data.worldbank.org/indicators/ (access date: 12.05.2015).
• Van Bavel J., 2010, Choice of study discipline and the postponement of motherhood in Europe: the impact of expected earnings, gender composition and family attitudes, "Demography", vol. 47, no.2, 439-458.
• Van Bavel J., 2012, The Reversal of Gender Inequality in Education, Union Formation and Fertility in Europe, "Vienna Yearbook of Population Research", vol. 10, 127-154.
• Vignoli D., Drefahl S., De Santis G., 2012, Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners, "Demographic Research", vol. 26, no. 2, 41-62.
• Winkler-Dworak M., Toulemon L., 2007, Gender differences in the transition to adulthood in France: Is there convergence over the recent period?, "European Journal of Population", vol. 23, no. 3-4, 273-314.
• Wiśniowski A., Smith P.W.F., Bijak J., Raymer J., Forster J.J., 2015, Bayesian population forecasting: extending the Lee-Carter method, "Demography", forthcoming.
• Zellner A., 1971, An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics, Wiley, New York.