Catching Up and Falling Behind : Four Puzzles after Two Decades of Post-Communist Transformation

• Autorzy: Zenonas Norkus

Warianty tytułu

Doganianie czy pozostawanie w tyle : cztery zagadki po dwóch dekadach transformacji postkomunistycznej

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

After more than two decades since the exit from Communism, no former communist country has been completely successful in catching up with the technological frontier countries. However, they divide into two groups: those which decreased the GDP gap with frontier countries since 1989-1990, and those which failed to do so. One may ask: What were the decisive causal conditions for their progress or failure in convergence? Were they the early implementation of Washington consensus style market reforms; their neighbourhood with advanced affluent countries; peaceful transition; accession to the EU; endowment with natural resources; state sovereignty before postcommunism; or interactions between these factors (or others)? Because of the small N, statistical analysis is not an appropriate tool for testing these hypotheses. Hence this paper uses qualitative comparative analysis to identify four explanatory puzzles of the catching-up growth performance of the postcommunist countries. (original abstract)

Po ponad dwudziestu latach od upadku komunizmu, żaden z byłych krajów bloku komunistycznego nie był w stanie całkowicie dogonić krajów technologiczne przodujących. Jednak, kraje postkomunistyczne można podzielić na dwie grupy: te, którym udało się zmniejszyć lukę w produkcie krajowym brutto (PKB) w stosunku do krajów technologiczne przodujących, i te, którym nie udało się tego zrobić. Nasuwa się zatem pytanie, jakie uwarunkowania zadecydowały o powodzeniu lub niepowodzeniu konwergencji? Czy to było wczesne wdrożenie reform rynkowych w stylu Konsensusu waszyngtońskiego; Sąsiedztwo zaawansowanych gospodarczo krajów zamożnych; spokojny, pokojowy przebieg transformacji systemowej; przystąpienie do Unii Europejskiej, zasobność kraju w zasoby naturalne, skala suwerenności państwa przed transformacją lub interakcje między tymi czynnikami (lub inne czynniki)? Ze względu na małą liczebność próby (N), analiza statystyczna nie jest odpowiednim narzędziem do testowania tych hipotez. Dlatego w artykule zastosowano jakościową analizę porównawczą identyfikując cztery zagadki w wyjaśnianiu przyczyn powodzenia lub klęski wzrostu doganiającego w krajach postkomunistycznych. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Post-communist countries; Market reforms; Comparative analysis

PL

Kraje postkomunistyczne; Reformy rynkowe; Analiza porównawcza

• Czasopismo: Comparative Economic Research
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: 18
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 63--79

Twórcy

autor

Zenonas Norkus

• Vilnius University, Lithuania

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Identyfikatory

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1515/cer-2015-0029