Do Low Interest Rates Mean Low Earnings for Banks?

• Autorzy: Sylwester Kozak

Warianty tytułu

Czy niskie poziomy stóp procentowych oznaczają małe dochody banków?

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The banking sector in developed economies for nearly a decade operates in an environment of low interest rates. This phenomenon is gradually transferring to the Polish banking sector. The article analyzes the mechanism which forces central banks to maintain low interest rates, and the effects of their impact on the banks' earnings in 2008-2014. The study is based on the data published by the central banks in selected countries and Poland. The results show that globalization, outsourcing of significant share of jobs, collecting savings and a lower inflationary pressure are major causes of environmental persistence of low interest rates in developed economies. Low interest rates in these countries have not lowered significantly banks' net interest margin, as well as their overall profitability. Similar behavior of banks can be observed in Poland during the period of cutting interest rates starting from the fourth quarter of 2012. (original abstract)

Sektor bankowy w krajach o wysokorozwiniętych gospodarkach od blisko dekady funkcjonuje w środowisku stóp procentowych na niskich poziomach. Zjawisko to stopniowo przenosi się do polskiego sektora bankowego. Artykuł analizuje mechanizm ustalanie się stóp procentowych na niskich poziomach, a także efekty wpływu tego zjawiska na dochody banków w latach 2008-2014. W badaniach posłużono się danymi z banków centralnych wybranych krajów i Polski. Wyniki badań wskazują, że globalizacja, outsourcing znacznej części prac, wysoka stopa oszczędności i słaba presja inflacyjna stanowią ważniejsze przyczyny utrzymywania się środowiska stóp procentowych na niskich poziomach w wysokorozwiniętych gospodarkach. Niskie poziomy stóp oprocentowanych w tych krajach nie obniżyły jednak znacząco marży odsetkowej, a także ogólnej dochodowości banków. Podobne zachowania banków można zaobserwować w Polsce w okresie obniżania stóp procentowych zapoczątkowanego w IV kwartale 2012 roku. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Banks; Interest rate; Income

PL

Banki; Stopa procentowa; Dochody

• Czasopismo: Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia
• Rocznik: 15 (2016)
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 41--49

Twórcy

autor

Sylwester Kozak

• Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, Poland

Bibliografia

• Adrian, T., Shin, T. (2010). Liquidity and Leverage. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Reports, 328.
• Ahrend, R., Catte, P., Price, R. (2006). Factors Behind Low Long-term Interest Rates. Financial Market Trends, 109-141.
• Alessandri, P., Nelson, B. (2012). Simple banking: profitability and the yield curve. Bank of England, Working Paper, 452.
• Boeckx, J., Cordemans, N., Dossche, M. (2013). Causes and implications of the low level of the risk-free interest rate. Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, II, 63-88.
• Borio, C., Zhu, H. (2012). Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism? Journal of Financial Stability, 8 (4), 236-251.
• Bosworth, B. (2014). Interest Rates and Economic Growth: Are They Related? Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Working Paper, 8.
• Caballero, R., Hoshi, T., Kashyap A. (2005). Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan. NBER Working Paper Series, 12129.
• Danthine, J.-P. (2013). Causes and consequences of low interest rates. Swiss National Bank.
• Dell'Ariccia, G., Laeven, L., Suarez, G. (2013). Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States. IMF Working Paper, 143/13.
• Forbes, K. (2015). Low interest rates: King Midas' golden touch? Speech, The Institute of Economic Affairs, Bank of England.
• Fuentes, R., Gredig, F. (2007). Estimating the Chilean Natural Rate of Interest. Central Bank of Chile, Working Paper, 448.
• Genay, H. (2014). What is the impact of a low interest rate environment on bank profitability? Economic Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 324, 1-4.
• Gerdesmeier, D., Reimers, H., Roffi a, B. (2009). Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit. ECB Working Paper Series, 1068 (7).
• Maddaloni, A., Peydro, J.-L. (2010). Bank risk-taking, securitization, supervision and low interest rates. Evidence from the euro area and the US lending standards. ECB Working Paper Series, 1248.
• Morris, Ch., Regehr, K. (2014). What Explains Low Net Interest Income at Community Banks? Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 59-87.
• Orr, A., Edey, M., Kennedy, M. (1995). The Determinants of Real Long-Term Interest Rates. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 155.
• Paligorova, T., Jimenez, J. (2012). Monetary Policy and the Risk-Taking Channel: In-sights from the Lending Behaviour of Banks. Bank of Canada Review, Autumn, 23-30.
• Thwaites, G. (2015). Why are real interest rates so low? Secular stagnation and the relative price of investment goods. Bank of England, Centre for Macroeconomics Discussion Paper.