Ocena ryzyka zagrożenia powodziowego na rzece Nysa Kłodzka z wykorzystaniem wybranych rozkładów prawdopodobieństwa wartości ekstremalnych

• Autorzy: Łukasz Kuźmiński

Warianty tytułu

Assessment of Flood Risk in the Nysa Klodzka River Using Selected Extreme Values Distributions

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Artykuł poświęcony jest zastosowaniu wybranych rozkładów wartości ekstremalnych do szacowania ryzyka zagrożenia powodziowego na terenie Bystrzycy Kłodzkiej nad rzeką Nysa Kłodzka. W badaniu wykorzystane zostały dobowe stany wody na rzece Nysa Kłodzka zebrane w stacji hydrologicznej Bystrzyca Kłodzka. Z danych pochodzących z lat 1981-2014 wyselekcjonowane zostały maksima półroczne stanów wody. Do rozkładu empirycznego rocznych maksimów dopasowano dwa rozkłady teoretyczne: Gumbela i Frecheta. Dystrybuanty obu rozkładów wykorzystano do oszacowania ryzyka powodziowego dla badanego obszaru.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The article concerns the application of selected distributions of extreme values to estimate the risk of occurring of flood danger in Lower Silesia. In the study a daily water level on the Nysa Klodzka River was used, that was gathered in the hydrological station in Bystrzyca Klodzka. From the collected data from the period 1981-2013 biannual maximum water level was selected. Two theoretical distributions: Gumbel and Frechet were fitted to the empirical distribution of biannual maximal. The best fitted two distributions were used for the exemplary assessment of flood danger.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Identyfikacja zagrożeń bezpieczeństwa; Powódź; Woda; Teoria wartości ekstremalnych

EN

Safety risk identification; Flood; Water; Extreme Values Theory (EVT)

• Czasopismo: Ekonometria / Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu
• Rocznik: 2016
• Numer: nr 1 (51)
• Strony: 48--60

Twórcy

autor

Łukasz Kuźmiński

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu

Bibliografia

• Ahmad M., Sinclair C., Spurr B., 1988, Assessment of flood frequency models using empirical distribution function statistics, Water Resources Res., 24, s. 1323-1328.
• Arns A., Wahl T., Haigh I., Jensena J., Pattiaratchi C., 2013, Estimating extreme water level probabilities: A comparison of the direct methods and recommendations for best practice, Coastal Enginee-ring, 81, s. 51-66.
• Beran M., Hoskin J., Arnell N., 1986, Comment on two - component extreme value distribution for flood frequency analysis by Fabio Rossi, Mauro Fiorentino, Pasquale Versace, Water Resources Res., 22, s. 263-266.
• Bordi I., Fraedrich K., Petitta M., Sutera A., 2007, Extreme value analysis of wet and dry periods in Sicily, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 87, s. 61-67.
• Bortkiewicz L., 1922, Variationsbreite und mittlerer Fehler, Sitzungsber Berli. Meth. Ges., 21, s. 3-11.
• Byczkowski A., 1996, Hydrologia, tom I, Wydanictwo SGGW, Warszawa.
• Cauncil T.E., 2007, Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks, Journal of the European Union Official, Brussels.
• Chaibandit K., Konyai S., 2012, Using statistics in hydrology for analyzing the discharge of Yom river, APCBEE Procedia, vol. 1, s. 356-362.
• Charon C., 2015, Probability distributions of wind speed in the UAE, Energy Conversion and Management, 93, s. 414-434.
• Chen Y., Shortle J., Gelder P., Sha Z., 2002, Study of parameter estimation methods for Pearson - III distribution in flood frequency analysis, Int. Association of Hydrological Sciences, s. 263-269.
• Dogan A., Haktanir T., Seckin S., Yurtal R., 2010, Comparison of propability weighted moments and maximum likehood methods used in frequency analysis for ceyhan river basin, Arabian Journal for Science & Engineering, vol. 35, Issue 1B, April, s. 49-69.
• Engeland K., Frigessi A., Hisdal H., 2005, Practical extreme value modelling of hydrological floods and droughts: a case study, Extremes, vol. 7, Issues 1, s. 5-30.
• Fuller W., 1914, Floods flows, Trans. Amer. Soc. Civil Engineers, 77, s. 564-583.
• Greis N., Wood E., 1981, Regional flood frequency estimation and network design, Water Resources Res., s. 1167-1177.
• Gumbel E., 1941, The return period of flood flaws, Ann. Math. Statist., 12, s. 163-190.
• Gumbel E., 1944, On the plotting of flood discharges, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 25, s. 699-719.
• Gumbel E., 1945, Floods estimated by probability methods, Engrg. News-Record, 134, s. 97-101.
• Gumbel E., 1949, The statistical forecast of floods, Water Resources Board Bulletin, no. 15, s. 1-21.
• Gumbel E., 1954, Statistical theory of extreme values and some practical applications, National Bureau of Standards, Applied Mathematics Series, vol. 33.
• Hipel K., 1994, Extreme Values: Floods and Droughts, Proceedings of International, Conference on Stochastic and Statistical Methods in Hydrology and Enviromental Engineering, vol. 1, Kluwer, Dordrecht.
• Holicky M., Sykora M., 2010, Assessment of flooding risk to cultural heritage in historic sites, Journal of Perfomance of Constructed Facilities, s. 432-438.
• Jain D., Singh V., 1987, Estimating parameters of EV1 distribution for flood frequency analysis, Water Resources Res., 23, s. 59-71.
• Katz R., Parlange M., Neveau P., 2002, Statistics of extremes in hydrology, Advances in Water Resources, s. 8-12.
• Kundzewicz Z., 2005, Summer floods in central Europe. Climate change track?, Natural Hazards, s. 165--189.
• Kuźmiński Ł., 2013, The applications of the kernel densities to the modeling the generalized Pareto distributions, Ekonometria 3(41), s. 55-64.
• Magiera R., 2002, Modele i metody statystyki matematycznej, Oficyna Wydawnicza GiS, Wrocław.
• Nachabe M., Paynter S., 2011, Use of generalized extreme value covariates to improve estimation of trends and return frequencies for lake levels, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 13.1, s. 13-24.
• Pericchi L., Rodriguez-Iturbe I., 1985, On statistical analysis of floods. W A. F. Atkinson, Celebration Statistics, s. 511-541.
• Rossi F., Fiorentino M., Versace P., 1986, Two - component extreme value distribuition for flood fre-quency analysis, Water Resources Res, 22, s. 1551-1564.
• Shen H., Bryson M., Ochoa I., 1980, Effect of tail behavior assumptions on flood, Water Resources Re., 16, s. 361-364.
• Smith R., 1987, Estimating the upper tail of flood frequency distributions, Water Resources Res, 23, s. 1657-1666.
• Stovel H., 1998, Risk Preparendness: A Management Manual for World Cultural Heritage, [in:] International Centre for the Study of Preservation and Restoration of Cultural Property, Roma.
• Thomas M., Reiss R., 2007, Statistical Analysis of Extreme Value with Applications to Insurance, Finance, Hydrology and Other Fields, Birkhauser, Berlin.
• Todorovic P., 1979, A probabilistic approach to analysis and prediction of floods, Proc. 43rd ISI.
• Yue S., Bobe B., Legendre P. i Bruneau P., 1999, The Gumbel mixed model for flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., s. 88-100.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.15611/ekt.2016.1.04