Speculative Bubbles and their Components on the Real Estate Market - a Preliminary Analysis

• Autorzy: Justyna Brzezicka
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Various speculative phenomena arise on the real estate market, and the speculative bubble (SB) is one of the best known events of the type. Speculative bubbles still have many unidentified components, and are characterized by high research potential due to the multiple factors responsible for bubble creation, as well as considerable practical implications on account of the multivariate results describing the real estate market (REM) and its surroundings. Speculative price bubbles are associated mainly with changes in price trends on the real estate market. A thorough analysis of a speculative bubble over time demonstrates trend changes also in other research categories which constitute bubble components and elements of the real estate market and its surroundings. The above criteria were used to identify a new research category termed speculative bubble components (SBC). The research hypothesis states that speculative bubbles should be analyzed based not only on prices, but also on bubble components. The objectives of this study were to: 1) classify speculative phenomena on the REM, 2) describe a speculative bubble based on market prices and SBC, and 3) present the results of a study evaluating speculative bubble components in relation to market prices, and discuss the trajectories of the analyzed research categories over time. This study attempts to determine whether a speculative bubble can be analyzed in view of its components, and which elements of the real estate market and its surroundings can be classified as SBC. Attempts were also made to identify a research method that supports the identification of SBC variables and classification of variables into groups, and explains market prices in view of the identified variables and groups. The research relies on a review of literature in the theoretical part and statistical analyses in the experimental part. The results will broaden our knowledge of the mechanisms behind speculative phenomena on the real estate market. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economic bubble; Real estate market

PL

Bańka spekulacyjna; Rynek nieruchomości

• Czasopismo: Real Estate Management and Valuation
• Rocznik: 2016
• Numer: vol. 24, iss. 1
• Strony: 87--99

Twórcy

autor

Justyna Brzezicka

• University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland

Bibliografia

• Aczel A.D., 2000, Statystyka w zarządzaniu (Statistics in management), PWN, Warszawa (in Polish).
• Barberis N., 2013, Psychology and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, pp. 15-28, in: Financial innovation: too much or too little?, ed. Haliassos M., MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
• Belej M., 2013, Catastrophe theory in explaining price dynamics on the real estate market, Real Estate Management and Valuation, no. 21(3), pp. 51-61.
• Blanchard O., 2009, The Crisis: Basic Mechanisms, and Appropriate Policies, IMF Working Paper, WP/09/80.
• Bryx M., 2006, Rynek nieruchomości: system i funkcjonowanie (Real estate market: system and function), Poltext Publishing, Warsaw (in Polish).
• Brzezicka J., Wiśniewski R., 2014, Price bubble in the real estate market - behavioral aspects, Real Estate Management and Valuation, no 22, (1), pp. 80-93.
• Brzezicka J., Wisniewski R., 2015, Applying the Phenomenon of Real Estate Market Subject Translocality to Determine the Regional Development Level of Polish Voivodeships, Real Estate Management and Valuation, no. 23(2), pp. 27-37.
• Brzezicka J., Wiśniewski R., 2016, Translocality on the real estate market, manuscript under review in Land Use Policy.
• Bootle R., 2009, The trouble with markets. Saving Capitalism itself, Nicholas Berkley Publishing, London.
• Carter P., 1998, Nauka spekulacji (Learning to speculate), Liber, Warsaw (in Polish).
• Garber P., 2000, Famous First Bubbles, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
• Case K. E., Shiller R. J., 2003. Is there a bubble in the housing market?, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 2003(2), pp. 299-362. [CrossRef]
• Goodman A.C., Thibodeau T.G., 2008, Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?, Journal of Housing Economics, No. 17(2), pp. 117-137. [CrossRef]
• Hagstorm R.G., 1994, The Warren Buffett Way - Investment Strategies of the World's Greatest Investor, Wydawnictwo Naukowo-Techniczne, Warsaw (Polish edition).
• Himmelberg, C., Mayer C., Sinai T., 2008, Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports.
• Hui E.C., Yue S., 2006, Housing price bubbles in Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai: a Comparative Study, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, No. 33(4), pp. 299-327.
• Kindleberger C., Aliber R., 2005, Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Wiley Hoboken, New York [Web of Science]
• Kucharska-Stasiak E, Schneider B., Załęczna M., 2009, Methodology for Local and Regional Real Estate Markets, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź.
• Lai R. N., Van Order R. A., 2010, Momentum and House Price Growth in the United States: Anatomy of a Bubble, Real Estate Economics, No. 38(4), pp. 753-773. [Web of Science] [CrossRef]
• Łaszek J., Augustyniak H., Widłak M., 2009, House Price Bubbles on the Major Polish Housing Markets, Working paper presented at the Annual Conference of the European Network for Housing Research, Prague.
• Roubini N., Mihm S, 2010, Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance, The Penguin Press, New York.
• Shiller R.J., 1990, Speculative prices and popular models, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, No. 4(2), pp. 55-65. [CrossRef]
• Shiller R. J. 2000. Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence, The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, No. 1(1), pp. 49-60.
• Smith M. H., Smith G., 2006, Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble?, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1, pp. 1-50. [CrossRef]
• Stanisz A., 2006, Przystępny kurs statystyki z zastosowaniem STATISTICA PL na przykładach z medycyny. Statystyki podstawowe (Statistics for Beginners: the Application of STATISTICA PL in Medicine. Basic Statistics), StatSoft, Kraków (in Polish).
• Stiglitz J. E., 1990, Symposium on Bubbles, Journal of Economic Perspectives, No. 4(2), pp. 13-18. [CrossRef]
• Tyc W., 2013, Modele idealizacyjne baniek cenowych (Idealization of Speculative Bubbles), Przegląd Zachodniopomorski, No. (3/1), pp. 339-356 (in Polish).
• Tyszka T., 2010, Decyzje. Perspektywa psychologiczna i ekonomiczna (Decisions. From the Psychological and Economic Perspective), Wydawnictwo Scholar, Warsaw (in Polish).
• Wisniewski R., 2007, Wielowymiarowe prognozowanie wartości nieruchomości (Multi-Dimensional Predictions of Real Estate Value), Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Warmińsko-Mazurskiego, Olsztyn (in Polish).
• Żelazowski K., 2007, Zjawisko bańki cenowej w kontekście zmian na polskim rynku mieszkaniowym (Speculative Bubbles and Changes on the Polish Market of Residential Property), Studia i Materiały Towarzystwa Naukowego Nieruchomości, No. 15(1-2), pp. 139-148 (in Polish).
• Żelazowski K., 2008, Zjawisko baniek cenowych na rynkach nieruchomości (Speculative Bubbles on Real Estate Markets), Studia i Materiały Towarzystwa Naukowego Nieruchomości, No. 16(4), pp. 99-108 (in Polish).

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1515/remav-2016-0008