Brexit Related Uncertainty for United Kingdom Economy

• Autorzy: Michał Wielechowski , Katarzyna Czech

Warianty tytułu

Brexit a występowanie niepewności w gospodarce Wielkiej Brytanii

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The aim of research is to present economic and financial uncertainty related to Britain's exit from the European Union (EU). Paper discusses and analyses the pre-referendum characteristics of Brexit, the problem of growing uncertainty and its impact on British financial markets and the economy of the United Kingdom (UK), and possible scenarios of future UK-EU relationship. Post-referendum Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) levels indicate growing uncertainty in British economy. The most evident pro-Brexit voting effect was a substantial depreciation of British pound (GBP). Economic forecasts indicate negative impact of Britain's withdrawing from the EU on gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in 2016-2020. The most likely scenario for post-Brexit UK-EU relationship is going to be a "hard Brexit". (original abstract)

Celem badań jest przedstawienie niepewności gospodarczej i finansowej związanej z wyjściem Wielkiej Brytanii z Unii Europejskiej. W artykule scharakteryzowano zjawisko Brexitu, dokonano analizy niepewności na brytyjskim rynku finansowym oraz w gospodarce Wielkiej Brytanii oraz przedstawiono możliwe scenariusze relacji między Wielką Brytanią a Unią Europejską. Poziom indeksu niepewności polityki gospodarczej (EPU) wskazuje na występowanie wzrostu niepewności w brytyjskiej gospodarce. Silna deprecjacja brytyjskiego funta stanowi najbardziej widoczny skutek referendum z 23 czerwca 2016 roku. Prognozy ekonomiczne wskazują, że decyzja o opuszczeniu Unii Europejskiej przez Wielką Brytanię spowoduje obniżenie tempa wzrostu gospodarczego w latach 2016-2020. Analiza potencjalnych modeli relacji Wielkiej Brytanii z Unią Europejską wykazała, że najbardziej prawdopodobna jest realizacja scenariusza "twardego Brexitu" (ang. hard Brexit). (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Economy; Economic policy

PL

Gospodarka; Polityka gospodarcza

• Czasopismo: Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia
• Rocznik: 15 (2016)
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 171--181

Twórcy

autor

Michał Wielechowski

• Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie

autor

Katarzyna Czech

• Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, Poland

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