Long-Term Trends in International Migration: Lessons from Macroeconomic Model

• Autorzy: Frédéric Docquier
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

I n this paper I develop a stylized model of the world economy and use it to explain the long-run trends in international migration. The model very well fits the trends of the last 40 years which are mainly governed by the evolution of population disparities between industrialized and developing countries. Then I provide migra- tion projections for the 21st century and show that future migration is also governed by socio-demographic changes. I predict a robust increase in immigration pressures from sub-Saharan Africa and MENA countries to European countries. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Migration; Migration policy; World economy; Economic inequality; Social-economics inequality; Macroeconomic models; Macroeconomic modelling of economy

PL

Migracja; Polityka migracyjna; Gospodarka światowa; Nierówności gospodarcze; Nierówności społeczno-gospodarcze; Modele makroekonomiczne; Modelowanie makroekonomiczne gospodarki

• Czasopismo: Economics and Business Review
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: 4 (18)
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 3--15

Twórcy

autor

Frédéric Docquier

• Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium

Bibliografia

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• Docquier, F., Machado, J. (2017). Income disparities, population and migration flows over the 21st century. Italian Journal of Economics, 3(2), 125-149.
• Hanson, G., McIntosh, C. (2016). Is the Mediterranean the new Rio Grande? US and EU immigration pressures in the long run. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(4), 57-82.
• Lutz, W., Butz, W.P., Samir, K.C. (2014). World population and human capital in the twenty first century. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Ottaviano, G.I.P., Peri, G. (2012). Rethinking the effect of immigration on wages. Journal of the European Economic Association, 10, 152-197.
• Ozden, C., Parsons, C.R., Schiff, M., Walmsley, T.L. (2011). Where on earth is every- body? The evolution of global bilateral migration 1960-2000. World Bank Economic Review, 25(1), 12-56.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.18559/ebr.2018.1.1