Gold Investment Incentives: An Empirical Identification of the Main Gold Price Determinants and Prognostication of Gold Price Future Trends

• Autorzy: Ligita Gaspareniene , Rita Remeikiene , Alius Sadeckas , Romualdas Ginevicius
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

During the World War I, most of the countries stopped coin production and began converting paper money into gold. Various forms of exchange were later abolished during the "Great Depression" in 1929-1933. Later, gold lost the value of money in most of the economies worldwide. Multiple price rise of gold caused a real rise in the value of gold reserves and their potential ability to cover the balance of payment deficit. At the same time, it shows that gold still plays an important role in terms of monetary aspect. The aim of this study was to determine whether ARIMA models are suitable for determining the short-term volatility of gold prices. The calculations show that ARIMA model is suitable only for short-term gold price forecasts (max. 1 year). Thus, it is necessary to apply other models (multi-regression ones) that also can reveal the relationship between gold price and its determinants. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Gold; Autoregression models

PL

Złoto; Modele autoregresji

• Czasopismo: Economics & Sociology
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: 11
• Numer: nr 3
• Strony: 248--264

Twórcy

autor

Ligita Gaspareniene

• Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics Vilnius, Lithuania

autor

Rita Remeikiene

• Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics Vilnius, Lithuania

autor

Alius Sadeckas

• JCC "Ekskomisarų biuras", Vilnius, Lithuania

autor

Romualdas Ginevicius

• Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania

Bibliografia

• Adrangi, B., Chatrath, A., & Christie, D. R. (2000). Price discovery in strategically-linked markets: the case of the gold-silver spread. Applied Financial Economics, 10, 227-234.
• Aggarwal, R. (1992). Gold Markets. In P. Newman, M. Milgate, & J. Eatwell (Eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance (2nd ed., pp. 257-258). Basingstoke: Macmillan.
• Ariovich, G. (1983). The impact of political tension on the price of gold. Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 16, 17-37.
• Artigas, J. C. (2010). Rediscovering gold as an asset class. Journal of Indexes. Retrieved from http://www.etf.com/publications/journalofindexes/joi-articles/8239-rediscoveringgold-as-an-asset-class.html
• Baker, S. A., & Van Tassel, R. C. (1985). Forecasting the price of gold: a fundamentalist approach. Atlantic Economic Journal, 13, 43-51.
• Balarie, E. (2017). Gold as a diversifying investment. Retrieved from: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/08/invest-in-gold.asp

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.14254/2071-789X.2018/11-3/15