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16 (2018) | nr 2 | 23--32
Tytuł artykułu

The Measurement and Impact of Uncertainty

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
The study of policy uncertainty has increased exponentially across the economics and finance profession as of late, with papers across sub-disciplines finding uniformly that uncertainty has a negative effect on country growth paths. However, the somewhat nebulous term "uncertainty", and why such uncertainty is of relevance right now, has been only explored at a facile conceptual (if in-depth methodological) level. The purpose of this brief paper is to introduce some conceptual and definitional clarity to the idea of "uncertainty", spelling out clearly what different facets it entails and how these facets may influence economic variables. Focusing in particular on economic policy and institutional uncertainty, this paper is meant to serve as an introduction to the field but also serve as a call for future research. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Numer
Strony
23--32
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Kozminski University; CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research
Bibliografia
  • Al Fayad F.S. (2016), Supply Chain Disruptions and Their Effect on Volatility of Rice Prices in Saudi Arabia, "International Journal of Marketing Studies", Vol. 8, No. 6.
  • Arouri M., Estay C., Rault C., Roubaud D. (2016), Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US, "Finance Research Letters", Vol. 18, Issue C.
  • Baker S.R., Bloom N., Davis S.J. (2016), Measuring economic policy uncertainty, "The Quarterly Journal of Economics", Vol. 131, No. 4.
  • Balcilar M., Gupta R., Pierdzioch C., Wohar M.E. (2017), Do terror attacks affect the dollar-pound exchange rate? A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles analysis, "The North American Journal of Economics and Finance", Vol. 41.
  • Berggren N., Bergh A., Bjørnskov C. (2012), The growth effects of institutional instability, "Journal of Institutional Economics", Vol. 8, No. 2.
  • Brunetti A., Weder B. (1998), Investment and institutional uncertainty: a comparative study of different uncertainty measures, "Review of World Economics", Vol. 134, No. 3.
  • Caldara D., Iacoviello M. (2017), Measuring Geopolitical Risk, Unpublished working paper, https://www2.bc.edu/matteo-iacoviello/gpr_files/GPR_PAPER.pdf.
  • Clague C., Keefer P., Knack S., Olson M. (1996), Property and contract rights in autocracies and democracies, "Journal of Economic Growth", Vol. 1, No. 2.
  • Damar H.E. (2007), The effect of the Iraq war on foreign bank lending to the MENA region, "Emerging Markets Finance and Trade", Vol. 43, No. 5.
  • Garcia D. (2013), Sentiment during recessions, "The Journal of Finance", Vol. 68, No. 3.
  • Gulen H., Ion M. (2016), Policy uncertainty and corporate investment, "The Review of Financial Studies", Vol. 29, No. 3.
  • Hartwell C.A. (2013), Institutional Deterioration in Transition Economies: Playing Follow-the-Leader During the Global Financial Crisis?, "Transition Studies Review", Vol. 20, No. 2.
  • Hartwell C.A. (2017), The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies, "Journal of Comparative Economics", Vol. 46, No. 2.
  • Kelly B., Pástor Ľ., Veronesi P. (2016), The price of political uncertainty: Theory and evidence from the option market, "The Journal of Finance", Vol. 71, No. 5.
  • Kenyon T., Naoi M. (2010), Policy uncertainty in hybrid regimes: evidence from firmlevel surveys, "Comparative Political Studies", Vol. 43, No. 4.
  • McQueen G., Roley V.V. (1993), Stock prices, news, and business conditions, "Review of Financial Studies", Vol. 6, No. 3.
  • Rich R., Tracy J. (2010), The relationships among expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: evidence from matched point and density forecasts, "The Review of Economics and Statistics", Vol. 92, No. 1.
  • Starr M., Tran K. (2008), Determinants of the physical demand for gold: Evidence from panel data, "The World Economy", Vol. 31, No. 3.
  • Stokey N.L. (2016), Wait-and-see: Investment options under policy uncertainty, "Review of Economic Dynamics", Vol. 21.
  • Ulrich M. (2012), Economic policy uncertainty and asset price volatility. Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, Columbia University.
  • Voigt S. (2013), How (not) to measure institutions, "Journal of Institutional Economics", Vol. 9, No. 1.
  • Weaver R.K. (1986), The politics of blame avoidance, "Journal of Public Policy", Vol. 6, No. 4.
  • www.policyuncertainty.com
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171538413

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