Could Cryptocurrencies or CBDCs Replace the Recent Monetary Systems?

• Autorzy: Andrzej Sławiński

Warianty tytułu

Czy kryptowaluty lub pieniądz depozytowy kreowany przez banki centralne mogą zastąpić obecny system pieniężny?

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper highlights why, contrary to frequent claims, cryptocurrencies will not replace the existing monetary system. The reason is that despite its shortcomings the current monetary system is a product of a long evolution which had adjusted it to the needs of the economy. Cryptocurrencies will probably remain what they have been during the last decade, i.e. the popular speculative assets and the means of payment used - due to their anonymity - for illicit operations. The recent monetary system, based on deposit money issued by commercial banks, will not be replaced also by deposit money issued by central banks (Central Bank Digital Currency) as the CBDC would lack a rational mechanism of its allocation and would pose risks to financial stability. (original abstract)

Artykuł przedstawia przyczyny powodujące, że wbrew dość powszechnym w tym względzie oczekiwaniom, kryptowaluty nie zastąpią istniejącego obecnie systemu pieniężnego. Przyczyna wynika stąd, że mimo swych słabości obecny system pieniężny jest efektem długiej ewolucji, która dostosowała jego funkcjonowanie do potrzeb gospodarki. Kryptowaluty pozostaną najprawdopodobniej tym, czym były przez ostatnią dekadę: popularnym aktywem spekulacyjnym i środkiem płatniczym wykorzystywanym (w wyniku swojej anonimowości) do przeprowadzania niezgodnych z prawem transakcji. Istniejący obecnie system pieniężny, oparty na pieniądzu depozytowym kreowanym przez banki komercyjne, nie zostanie także zastąpiony przez pieniądz depozytowy kreowany przez banki centralne (Central Bank Digital Currency), ponieważ system taki charakteryzowałyby dwie nieuniknione słabości: brak racjonalnego ekonomicznie mechanizmu alokacji CBDC i związane z jego emisją ryzyka dla stabilności finansowej. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Cryptocurrencies; Monetary system; Create money; Central banks

PL

Kryptowaluty; System monetarny; Kreowanie pieniądza; Banki centralne

• Czasopismo: Ekonomista
• Rocznik: 2019
• Numer: nr 5
• Strony: 636--646

Twórcy

autor

Andrzej Sławiński

• SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

Bibliografia

• A Cryptic Message, "The Economist", 1.09.2018.
• Agarwal R., Kimball M.S., Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recession: A Guide, IMF Working Papers, 2019, no. 19-84.
• Aizenman J., On the Built-in Instability of Cryptocurrencies, VOX, CEPR Policy Portal, 12.02.2019, www.eu.org
• Al-Naji N., Josh Chen J., Diao L., Basis: A Price-Stable Cryptocurrency with an Algorithmic Central Bank, www.basis.io
• Benes J., Kumhof M., The Chicago Plan Revisited, IMF Working Papers, 2012, WP/12/202.
• Bordo M.D., Rules for a Lender of Last Resort: An Historical Perspective, "Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control" 2014, no. 4.
• Bordo M.D., А Brief History of Central Banks, Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2007.
• Bordo M.D., Levin A.T., Central Bank Digital Currency and the Future of Monetary Policy, NBER Working Papers, 2017, no. 23711.
• Borio C, One Money, Debt, Trust and Central Banking, Keynote speech, Cato Institute, 36th Annual Monetary Conference, Washington 2018.
• Callesen P., Can Banking Be Sustainable in the Future? A Perspective from Danmarks National Bank, Speech at Copenhagen Business School, Danmarks Nationalbank, Copenhagen 2017.
• Cassel G., The Downfall of the Gold Standard, Routledge, New York 2018 (1st published in 1936).
• Cogley Т., Monetary Policy and the Great Crash of 1929: A Bursting Bubble or Collapsing Fundamentals, "FRBSF Economic Letter", 26.03.1999.
• Danielsson J., Cryptocurrencies: Policy, Economics and Fairness, Systemic Risk Center Discussion Papers, 2018a, no. 86.
• Danielsson J., Cryptocurrencies Don't Make Sense, Systemic Risk Centre, London School of Economics, 2018b, modeslandrisk.org/cryptocurrencies
• Eichengreen В., From Commodity to Fiat and Now to Crypto: What Does History Tell Us?, NBER Working Papers, 2019, no. 25426.
• Eichengreen В., The Stable Coin Myth, www.project-syndicate.org
• Fisher I., 100% Money and Public Debt, "Economic Forum", April-June 1936, p. 406-420.
• Goodhart C.A.E., Narrow Banking Is Not the Answer to Systemic Fragility, "Financial Times", 28.10.2009.
• Grym A., The Great Illusion of Digital Currencies, "Bank of Finland Economic Review" 2018, no. 5.
• Grym A., Heikkinen P., Kauko K., Takala K., Central Bank Digital Currency, "Bank of Finland Economic Review" 2017, no. 5.
• Gürtler K.E., Nielsen S.T., Kauko K., Takala K., Central Bank Digital Currency in Denmark?, Danmarks Nationalbankal Bank, "Analysis" 2017, no. 28.
• Haldane A.G., Alessandri P., Banking on the State, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Conference "International Financial Crisis: Have the Rules of Finance Changed?", Chicago 2009.
• Houben R., Snyers A., Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain. Legal Context and Implications for Legal Crime, Money Laundering and Tax Evasion, European Parliament, Brussels 2018.
• IMF, A Bumpy Road Ahead, Global Financial Stability Report, Washington 2018.
• Kilponen J.J. et al., Central Bank Digital Currency, "Bank of Finland Economic Review" 2017, no. 5.
• McLeay M., Radia A., Ryland T, Money Creation in the Modern Economy, "Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin" 2014, no. 1.
• Mancini-Griffoli T. et al., Casting Light on Central Bank Digital Currency, IMF Staff Discussion Note, 2018, SDN/18/08.
• Meaning J., Dyson В., Barker J., Clayton E., Broadening Narrow Money: Monetary Policy with a Central Bank Digital Currency, Bank of England Staff Working Papers, 2018, no. 724.
• Nakamoto S., Bitcoin Open Source Implementation of P2P Currency, 2009, https: satishi-nakamotoinstitute.org
• Nakaso H., Future of Central Bank Payment and Settlement Systems under Economic Globalization and Technological Innovation, Remarks at the Forum Towards Making Effective Use of the BOJ-NET, Tokyo 2017.
• Roubini N., Crypto is the Mother of all Scams and (Now Busted) Bubbles while Blockcha-in is the Most Over-Hyped Technology Ever, No Better than a Spreadsheet I Database, Testimony for the Hearing of the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Community Affairs, Washington 2018.
• Simons H.C., Rules vs. Authorities in Monetary Policy, "Journal of Political Economy" 1936, no. 2.
• Söderberg G., Are Bitcoin and Other Crypto-assets Money?, Sveriges Riksbank, "Economic Commentaries" 2018, no. 5.
• Singh M., Stella P., Money and Collateral, IMF Working Papers, 2012, no. 12-95.
• Sveriges Riksbank, The Riksbank's e-Krona Project Action Plan for 2018, Stockholm 2017.
• Tobin J., Commercial Banks as Creators of Money, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, 1963, no. 159.
• Turner A., Between Debt and the Devil. Money, Credit and Fixing Global Finance, Princeton University Press, Princeton 2016.
• Turner A., Central Banking after the Crisis: No Return to Past Certainties, "Business Economics" 2015, no. 50(3).
• Vickers J., Safer, but not Safe Enough, Keynote address at the 20th International Conference of Banking Supervisors, Abu Dhabi 2018.