Forecasting and Management of Gross Domestic Product

• Autorzy: Viktor Oliinyk , Serhiy Kozmenko
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Given that in order to predict the economic growth of a country, the dynamics of its GDP should be considered, and the forecast itself should be made taking into account the difference between actual and estimated figures, the article discusses the problems of GDP management and its optimal distribution. The use of averages to determine economic parameters is also analyzed. The correspondence of the regression formula and the Cauchy boundary value problem is considered. The problem of managing the GDP components to obtain the necessary characteristics of GDP growth is solved using Pontryagin Maximum Principle. As an example, several options of the optimal GDP distribution (constant prices, national currency) for China in 2016-2020 are considered. Numerical results are reported and adjusted for the discount factor. Based on the calculations, it is shown that in 2017-2018, GDP increases and in 2019-2020 it decreases. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Gross domestic product (GDP); Forecasting; Economic growth; Economic growth theory

PL

Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB); Prognozowanie; Wzrost gospodarczy; Teoria wzrostu gospodarczego

• Czasopismo: Journal of International Studies
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: 12
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 214--228

Twórcy

autor

Viktor Oliinyk

• Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine

autor

Serhiy Kozmenko

• University of Social Science, Lodz, Poland; University of Customs and Finance, Dnipro, Ukraine

Bibliografia

• Ali, A. (2018). Travel and tourism: growth potentials and contribution to the GDP of Saudi Arabia. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 16(1), 417- 427. doi:10.21511/ppm.16(1).2018.39.
• Arutyunov, A. V., Magaril-Il'yaev, G. G., & Tihomirov, V. M. (2006). Pontryagin Maximum Principle. Proofs and applications. Moscow: Factorial Press.
• Balcerzak, A. P., & Pietrzak, M. B. (2016). Quality of institutions for knowledge-based economy within new institutional economics framework. multiple criteria decision analysis for European countries in the years 2000-2013. Economics and Sociology, 9(4), 66-81. doi:10.14254/2071-789X.2016/9-4/4
• Balcerzak, A. P. (2016). Multiple-criteria evaluation of quality of human capital in the European Union countries. Economics and Sociology, 9(2), 11-26. doi:10.14254/2071-789X.2016/9-2/1
• Barro, R. J., & Xavier, Sala-i-Martin (2004). Economic growth (2nd ed.). Cambridge: MIT Press. Retrieved from https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/economic-growth.
• Barry, E, Donghyun, P., & Kwanho, S. (2011). When fast growing economies slow down: International evidence and implications for China (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 16919). Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w16919.
• Deng, K., & O'Brien, P. (2016). China's GDP Per Capita from the Han Dynasty to Communist Times (Economic History Working Paper Series 229). Retrieved from http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/64857/1/WP229.pdf.
• Dougherty, C. (1992). Introduction to Econometrics. Oxford University Press. Retrieved from https://global.oup.com/academic/product/introduction-to-econometrics- 9780199676828?cc=us&lang=en&.
• Economy Watch. (2015). Econ Stats: The Economic Statistics and Indicators Database. Retrieved from http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/.
• Fashina, O. A., Asaleye, A. J., Ogunjobi, J. O., & Lawal, A. I. (2018). Foreign aid, human capital and economic growth nexus: Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of International Studies, 11(2), 104-117.
• Feng, J. and Wang, W. (2018). Fund performance-flow relationship and the role of institutional reform. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(1), 311-327. doi:10.21511/imfi.15(1).2018.26
• Goldberger, A. A. (1990). Course in Econometrics Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Retrieved from http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674175440.
• Greene, W. (2012). Econometric Analysis (7th ed.). Pearson.
• Kaigorodova, G., Alyakina, D., Pyrkova, G., Mustafina, A., & Trynchuk, V. (2018). Investment activity of insurers and the state economic growth. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 14(4), 109-123.
• Kasperowicz, R. (2014). Economic growth and energy consumption in 12 european countries: A panel data approach. Journal of International Studies, 7(3), 112-122. doi:10.14254/2071-8330.2014/7-3/10
• Kohli, H. A., Szyf, Y. A., & Arnold, D. (2012). Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 4(2), 91-153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0974910112467121.
• Korauš, A., Simionescu, M., Bilan, Y., & Schönfeld, J. (2017). The impact of monetary variables on the economic growth and sustainable development: Case of selected countries. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 6(3), 384-390.
• Kubiszewski, I., Costanza, R., Franco, C., Lawn, P., Talberth, J., Jackson, T., & Aylmer, C. (2013). Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine Progress, Ecological Economics, 93, 57-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.04.019.
• Kvasha, S., Davydenko, N., Pasichnyk, Y., Viatkina, T., & Wasilewska, N. (2018). GDP modelling: assessment of methodologies and peculiarities of its usage in Ukraine. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 16(4), 186-200. doi:10.21511/ppm.16(4).2018.16.
• Mankiw, N. G. (2009). Macroeconomics (7th ed.). Worth Publishers.
• Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A Contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118477.
• Mukhtarov, S., Humbatova, S., & Seyfullayev, İ. (2019). The impact of bank credits on non-oil GDP: evidence from Azerbaijan. Banks and Bank Systems, 14(2), 120-127. doi:10.21511/bbs.14(2).2019.10.
• Oliinyk, V. (2018). Optimal Management of GDP Components. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, IX, Spring, 2(32), 603-614. DOI:10.14505/jarle.v9.2(32).24.
• Pindyck, R., & Rubinfeld, D. (1991). Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts (3rd ed.). McGraw.
• Pontryagin, L. S, Boltyanskii, V. G., Gamkrelidze, R. V., & Mishchenko, E. F. (1983). The Mathematical Theory of Optimal Processes. Nauka (in Russian). Retrieved from https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?publication_year=1986&author=L.S.+Pontryagin&author=V.G.+Boltyanski\u{i}&author=R.V.+Gamkrelidze&author=E.F.+Mishchenko&title=The+Mathematical+Theory+of+Optimal+Processes,+Edited+and+with+a+Preface+by+R.+V.+Gamkrelidze.
• Shell, K. (1969). Application of Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to Economics // Mathematical System Theory and Economics (pp. 241-292) [Lecture Notes in Operations Research and Mathematical Economics, 11]. Berlin: Springer.
• Siliverstovs, B. (2012). Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland. Applied Economics Quarterly, 58(4), 299-326. https://doi.org/10.3790/aeq.58.4.299.
• Simionescu, M., Ciuiu, D., Bilan, Y., & Strielkowski, W. (2016). GDP and net migration in some eastern and south-eastern countries of Europe. A panel data and Bayesian approach. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 12(2), 161-175.
• Sonko, Y., Lazebna, I., & Lebedeva, L. (2018). Material production and GDP in Ukraine: theoretical concept and financial assessment. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(2), 51-59. doi: 10.21511/imfi.15(2).2018.05.
• Van den Bergh, J. C. J. M. J. (2009). The GDP paradox. Journal of Economic Psychology, 30, 117-135. http://dnr.maryland.gov/mdgpi/Documents/GDP_Paradox.pdf.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-4/14