Long-run Inflation Expectations in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters : What Do the Survey Responses Tell Us?

• Autorzy: Sami Oinonen , Matti Viren
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Research background: At the background, there are issues related to policy credibility and policy targets. For these issues, long-term forecasts can provide important information. Of course, long-term forecasts are needed also e.g. for evaluation of real returns.
Purpose of the article: This paper tries to find out how informative the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters data on long-term inflation prospects are from the point of view of the overall quality of the survey and on the other hand from the point of view of monetary policy credibility.
Methods: The analysis makes use of individual forecaster level quarterly panel data for the period 1999Q1-2018Q4. Conventional panel econometrics tools are used to find out whether forecasts are sensitive to changes in actual inflation and other relevant variables.
Findings & Value added: We find some weaknesses considering the size of the survey, the selection of the sample (more precisely the participation to the survey) and the inertial responses of forecasters which suggest that the survey values are not actively updated. Moreover, we find that towards the end of the sample period, the survey values are related to actual inflation and to short-term expectations, which is not consistent with the credibility of the official inflation target. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Inflation expectations; Credibility

PL

Oczekiwania inflacyjne; Wiarygodność

• Czasopismo: Equilibrium
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: 15
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 675--695

Twórcy

autor

Sami Oinonen

• Bank of Finland, Finland

autor

Matti Viren

• Bank of Finland; University of Turku, Finland

Bibliografia

• Christensen, J., & Lopez, J. (2016). Differing views on long-term inflation expectations. FTBSF Economic Letter, April, 1-11.
• Coibion, O., Gorodnichhenko, Y., & Kamdar, R. (2018a). The formation of expectations, inflation and the Phillips Curve. Journal of Economic Literature, 56(4), 1447-1491. doi: 10.1257/jel.20171300.
• Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kamdar, R. (2018b). How do firms form their expectations? New survey evidence. American Economic Review, 108(9), 2671-2713. doi: 10.1257/aer.20151299.
• Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Knotek, E., & Schoenle, R. (2020). Average inflation targeting and household expectations. NBER Working Paper, 27836.
• Demertzis, M., Marcellino, M., & Viegi, N. (2009). Anchors for inflation expectations. DNB Working Paper, 229.
• ECB (2018). Results on third special questionnaire for participants in the ECB survey of professional forecasters. Retrieved form https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/survey_of_professional_forecasters/html/ecb.spf201902_specialsurvey~7275f9e7e6.en.html

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.24136/eq.2020.029