Konsekwencje zgonów związanych z pandemią COVID-19 dla finansów Funduszu Ubezpieczeń Społecznych

• Autorzy: Radosław Murkowski , Małgorzata Szczyt

Warianty tytułu

Consequences of Deaths Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic for the Polish Pension System

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Wstęp: W artykule omówiono wpływ pandemii COVID-19 na umieralność w Polsce według wieku i na finanse Funduszu Ubezpieczeń Społecznych.
Cel: Celem badania była ocena wpływu nadmiarowych zgonów zaobserwowanych podczas pandemii COVID-19 w 2020 r. na finanse funduszu emerytalnego Funduszu Ubezpieczeń Społecznych.
Materiały i metody: Za pomocą metod analizy szeregów czasowych obliczono wielkość nadmiarowych zgonów według płci i wieku w Polsce w 2020 r. Następnie wykorzystując metody demografii potencjalnej, oszacowano wielkość utraconego potencjału życiowego z uwzględnieniem okresów przed i po osiągnięciu wieku emerytalnego. Dane te pozwoliły ustalić wpływ podwyższonej umieralności podczas epidemii w Polsce w 2020 r. na finanse funduszu emerytalnego.
Wyniki: W badaniu ustalono, że epidemia COVID-19 spowodowała w 2020 r. w Polsce ponad 69 tys. nadmiarowych zgonów. Przedwczesne zgony przełożą się w przyszłości na finanse Funduszu Ubezpieczeń Społecznych. Prognozy wykazały, że w prognozowanym okresie lat 2021-2105 saldo funduszu emerytalnego będzie wyższe o kwotę od 21,59 mld zł do 24,22 mld zł.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

Introduction: The article discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland on mortality by age and on the finances of the Polish Social Insurance Fund.
Objective: The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the excess deaths observed during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 on the finances of the pension fund of the Polish Social Insurance Fund.
Materials and methods: Using time series analysis methods, the size of excess deaths by sex and age in Poland in 2020 was calculated. Then, using the methods of potential demography, the amount of Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) was estimated, taking into account the periods before and after reaching retirement age. These data allowed one to determine the impact of increased mortality during the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland in 2020 on the finances of the Pension Fund.
Results: The study found that the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 caused over 69,000 excess deaths in Poland. Premature deaths will translate into the finances of the Social Insurance Fund in the future. Forecasts have shown that in the forecast period 2021-2105 the balance of the pension fund will be higher by PLN 21.59 billion to PLN 24.22 billion.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Fundusze emerytalne; Pandemia; COVID-19; System emerytalny; Przegląd literatury

EN

Pension funds; Pandemic; COVID-19; Pension schemes; Literature review

• Czasopismo: Ubezpieczenia Społeczne. Teoria i praktyka
• Rocznik: 2023
• Numer: nr 1 (156)
• Strony: 85--103

Twórcy

autor

Radosław Murkowski

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

autor

Małgorzata Szczyt

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5604/01.3001.0016.0765