Szacowanie luki popytowej dla gospodarki polskiej przy wykorzystaniu metody VECM

• Autorzy: Michał Gradzewicz , Marcin Kolasa

Warianty tytułu

Demand Gap Estimation In the Polish Economy On the Basis of VECM Method

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Przedstawiono wyniki badań nad kształtowaniem sie luki popytowej w polskiej gospodarce w latach 1996-2002 przy zastosowaniu wybranych metod. Luka popytowa definiowana jako względna różnica między rzeczywistym a potencjalnym PKB, jest wyznacznikiem nierównowagi panującej w gospodarce realnej. Potencjalny PKB to maksymalny produkt, jaki gospodarka jest w stanie wytworzyć w warunkach pełnego zatrudnienia. W celu oszacowania potencjalnego PKB dla polskiej gospodarki jako funkcję produkcji przyjęto dynamiczną funkcję Cobba-Douglasa.

EN

The article discusses three estimates of demand gap in the years 1996-2002. One is based on the production function, the other two - on the method of estimating long-term product trends, which uses co-integrated relations (based on production function and the permanent income hypothesis). The time-relations of the demand gaps and selected inflation indicators were also analysed by means of covariation of the VAR type stochastic process. The methods applied result in different demand gap estimations. The origin and nature of the gaps and the analysis of relations (provided that the correlation represented by the Phillips curve is present in the Polish economy and that the resulting gaps can be applied here) point to a lack of inflation pressure from the demand sector, which should last at least until the end of 2003. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Gospodarka; Luka popytowa; Funkcja Cobba-Douglasa; Model wektorowej korekty błędem

EN

Economy; Demand gap; Cobb-Douglas function; Vector error correction model (VECM)

• Czasopismo: Bank i Kredyt
• Rocznik: 2004
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 14--30

Twórcy

autor

Michał Gradzewicz

autor

Marcin Kolasa

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