Do moere advanced forecast models produce more accurate forecasts?

• Autorzy: Nico Willem Keilman
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In this paper I have demonstrated how a separation model can be used to analyse ex-post observed forecast errors, when a series of population forecasts is available. The model was applied to nine population forecasts that the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics produced between 1950 and 1980. An. important question which can be answered with such a model is, whether changes in forecast methodology have resulted in smaller errors. I have argued that an appropriate approach should involve that one disentangles period effects and duration effects in these forecast errors. Period effects are supposed to express social and demographic conditions as they were observed in reality (some time after the forecast was produced), and their impact on forecast errors. (fragment of text)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Research methodology; National census; Demography; Population

PL

Metodologia badań; Narodowy Spis Powszechny; Demografia; Ludność

• Czasopismo: Monografie i Opracowania / Szkoła Główna Handlowa
• Rocznik: 1991
• Numer: nr 345 Usefulness of demographic modelling
• Strony: 17--36

Twórcy

autor

Nico Willem Keilman

Bibliografia

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