Przewidywanie jako metoda zapobiegania stanom zagrożeń komunikacyjnych

• Autorzy: Arkadiusz Barczak

Warianty tytułu

Forecasting as a Method for Preventing Emergency Situations in Transportation

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W referacie przyjęto tezę, że zagrożenia nie powoduje pojedyńczy uczestnik ruchu drogowego, lecz zależności między elementami systemu komunikacyjnego, a przede wszystkim relacje między kierującymi pojazdami. Celem referatu jest rozwinięcie przyjętej tezy na podstawie analizy literatury poprzez: - wskazanie na ograniczone możliwości wykorzystania klasycznych metod prognozowania w zapobieganiu niebezpiecznym stanom komunikacyjnym, - podkreślenie konieczności opracowania modelu działania kierowcy (i innych użytkowników) z uwzględnieniem jego cech psychologicznych i aspektów socjalnych, - pokazanie możliwości i zalet zastosowania formalizmu teorii gier jako modelu badania relacji między uczestnikami ruchu drogowego, w projektowaniu procesów zapobiegania stanom zagrożeń komunikacyjnych.(fragment tekstu)

EN

In this paper, the postulate was validated that it is not just one person responsible for the traffic accident but the interdependence between all elements of the traffic process, with the emphasis placed on the drivers interactions. Stochastic interrelations were modeled using Bayesian Belief Networks. The possibility of application of the game theory as a tool for modeling interactions between drivers was appointed and the advantages obtained in the domain of the road safety management were indicated. The need for the development of the model comprising drivers interactions not only in the physical (vehicles) dimension but also in the psychological and social dimensions was expressed. This paper is a first step towards the application of the game theory in the research of the safety management in the road transportation, especially taking account of cases where the available information is partially missing and uncertain.(author's abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Komunikacja miejska; Wypadki komunikacyjne

EN

Municipal transport; Traffic accidents

• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego. Problemy Transportu i Logistyki
• Rocznik: 2012
• Numer: nr 19 Europejska przestrzeń transportu. Uwarunkowania mobilności
• Strony: 7--18

Twórcy

autor

Arkadiusz Barczak

• Politechnika Poznańska

Bibliografia

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