Is It the Natural Rate Hypothesis or the Hysteresis Hypothesis for Unemployment Rates in Newly Industrialized Economies?

• Autorzy: Dieu Nsenga , Mirada Nach , Hlalefang Khobai , Clement Moyo , Andrew Phiri

Warianty tytułu

Czy stopy bezrobocia w gospodarkach nowo uprzemysłowionych kształtują się zgodnie z hipotezą stopy naturalnej czy z hipotezą histerezy?

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The focus of our study is on determining whether unemployment rates in 8 New Industrialized Economies conform to the natural rate hypothesis or the hysteresis hypothesis. To this end, we employ a variety of unit of unit root testing procedures to quarterly data collected between 2002:q1 and 2017:q1. Summarizing of our findings, conventional unit root tests which account neither for asymmetries nor structural breaks produce the most inconclusive results. On the other hand, tests which incorporate structural breaks while ignoring asymmetries tends to favour the natural rate hypothesis for our panel of countries. However, simultaneously accounting for asymmetries and unobserved structural breaks seemingly produces the most robust findings and confirms hysteresis in all unemployment rates except for Asian economies/countries of Thailand and the Philippines. (original abstract)

Celem badania było ustalenie czy stopy bezrobocia w 8 gospodarkach nowo uprzemysłowionych kształtują się zgodnie z hipotezą stopy naturalnej czy z hipotezą histerezy. W tym celu zastosowano wiele rodzajów testów pierwiastka jednostkowego w odniesieniu danych kwartalnych zebranych między 1 kwartałem 2002 a 1 kwartałem 2017. Podsumowując ustalenia można stwierdzić, że konwencjonalne testy pierwiastka jednostkowego, które nie uwzględniają ani asymetrii, ani zmian strukturalnych, dają najbardziej niejednoznaczne wyniki. Z drugiej strony, testy uwzględniające zmiany strukturalne przy zignorowaniu asymetrii potwierdzałyby hipotezę stopy naturalnej dla przyjętego panelu państw. Jednak jednoczesne uwzględnienie asymetrii i niezauważalnych zmian strukturalnych wydaje się dawać najbardziej wiarygodne wyniki i potwierdza histerezę w przypadku stóp bezrobocia wszystkich państw, za wyjątkiem gospodarek/państw azjatyckich: Tajlandii i Filipin. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Unemployment rate; Unemployment

PL

Stopa bezrobocia; Bezrobocie

• Czasopismo: Comparative Economic Research
• Rocznik: 2019
• Tom: 22
• Numer: nr 4
• Strony: 39--55

Twórcy

autor

Dieu Nsenga

• Nelson Mandela University, South Africa

autor

Mirada Nach

• Nelson Mandela University, South Africa

autor

Hlalefang Khobai

• North West University, South Africa

autor

Clement Moyo

• Nelson Mandela University, South Africa

autor

Andrew Phiri

• Nelson Mandela University, South Africa

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Identyfikatory

DOI

https://doi.org/10.2478/cer-2019-0031