Les déterminants de la demande agrégée d'électricité en France

• Autorzy: Francis Bismans , Blaise Gnimassoun

Warianty tytułu

The Determinants oftThe Aggregate Electricity in France

• Języki publikacji: FR

Abstrakty

Cet article a pour objectif premier d'étudier la demande globale d'électricité à court et à long terme pour la France sur la période 1990-T1 à2015-T3. Il met en oeuvre la méthodologie économétrique connue sous le nom « du général au spécifique » pour estimer un modèle autorégressif à retards échelonnés (ARDL). Ce dernier conduit à une équation finale composée d'une relation de cointégration entre les quatre variables retenues (consommation d'électricité, prix de l'électricité, prix du gaz et PIB réel) et d'un mécanisme à correction d'erreur. À court terme, les déterminants de la demande d'électricité sont principalement constitués par l'occurrence de récessions économiques et par les variations de température.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

This paper mainly aims to study the aggregate electricity demand in the short and long term for France over the period 1990-Q1 to 2015-Q3. To this end, it uses the "General-to-Specific" econometric methodology to estimate an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model. This latest yields a final equation compounded by one cointegrating relation between four variables (electricity consumption, electricity price, gas price and real GDP), and by an error correction mechanism. In the short run, the determinants of electricity demand are essentially made of the occurrence of economic recessions and the variations of temperature.(original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Demand; Electric power; Electric power distribution; Cointegration; Systems diffuse

PL

Popyt; Energia elektryczna; Dystrybucja energii elektrycznej; Kointegracja; Systemy rozproszone

• Czasopismo: Revue Internationale des Economistes de Langue Française : revue de l'Association Internationale de Economistes de Langue Française avec la collaboration Université des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion
• Rocznik: 2017
• Tom: 2
• Numer: nr 2
• Strony: 151--176

Twórcy

autor

Francis Bismans

• Université de Lorraine, France

autor

Blaise Gnimassoun

• Université de Lorraine, France

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